Let’s do this, sickos!
The 1-3 Miami Dolphins visit the 1-3 New England Patriots in what’s on paper arguably the worst matchup of offenses you’ll see all season.
The only team that scores fewer points per game than the Patriots (13) this year is the Dolphins (11.3).
Thoughts and prayers go out to the Fox broadcast team of Chris Myers and Mark Sanchez.
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Game Preview
All snark aside, this is pretty much the entire season for the Dolphins, who have lost three straight — including the last two with Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve.
The offense under Tyler Huntley in Week 4 was indistinguishable from the offense under Skylar Thompson in Week 3.
But there is reason to believe things will improve this Sunday since Snoop Huntley should be more comfortable with another week in the system.
He better. A Dolphins loss and a Jacksonville Jaguars win over the Colts would statistically make Miami the NFL’s worst team and in line for the No. 1 pick in April’s NFL Draft after five weeks.
Mike McDaniel’s message to Dolphins fans pic.twitter.com/oUrGSi2O7T
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) October 1, 2024
That would have been inconceivable a month ago, but so would have been a Patriots -110 Week 5 moneyline. More than half of the bets and 61% of the money was on New England as of Friday morning.
Will the Patriots do it? PFN’s predictions, plus seven more key stats courtesy of TruMedia, are below.
7 Dolphins-Patriots Stats From TruMedia
Stat: Wide receiver Tyreek Hill, the NFL’s yards leader in 2023, had more targets (four) than receiving yards (three) in the first half in Week 4.
Analysis: Hill smartly downplayed his sideline rant from Week 4 and pooh-poohed trade talk. But our sense is his patience with this team is beginning to fray.
Stat: In their Week 4 win over Miami, the Titans scored more points against the Dolphins (31) than Miami has scored in total during its three-game losing streak (25).
Analysis: Mike McDaniel still has not proven an ability to devise an offense for anyone but Tua. “I hadn’t really been in one where we haven’t had production consecutively like this, so you really have to open your mind to really all things,” McDaniel said this week.
Stat: Huntley’s one-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter on Monday night ended a 30-drive stretch of touchdown-less football.
Analysis: The Dolphins are both bad and undisciplined on offense right now. Only the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens have been flagged for more penalties this year (37).
Stat: The Patriots are a league-worst 1-9 at home since the start of the 2023 season, including six straight home losses.
Analysis: Jerod Mayo’s first year has been rough, and based on the reporting up in New England, players are fed up with his decision to keep Drake Maye on the bench.
Stat: Jacoby Brissett has 15+ completions and under 170 passing yards in a league-high three games this season. Josh Dobbs (four) and Bryce Young (five) were the only quarterbacks with more such games in the last season.
Analysis: Brissett has always been Captain Checkdown, but it’s insane that any NFL team averages 4.1 yards per pass attempt like New England does.
Stat: The Patriots are the only team in the NFL to start four different offensive line combinations this season, and it shows. They rank last in pressure rate allowed (46.7%) and 27th in average rush yards before contact (1.0).
Analysis: No David Andrews is terrible news for a Patriots offensive line that ranks last in sack rate (15.6%), but the Dolphins’ pass rush will be diminished after Jaelan Phillips’ injury.
Stat: The Dolphins are 6-2-1 against the spread in road divisional games over the past three seasons.
Analysis: Take this last stat with a grain of salt. Each week, the betting trends say the Dolphins should be doing better than they are in 2023.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions
David Bearman (35-29 on the season): Patriots
Adam Beasley (33-31): Dolphins
Brian Blewis (33-31): Patriots
Anthony DiBona (34-20): Patriots
Mike Gambardella (39-25): Patriots
Dakota Randall (38-26): Patriots
Dallas Robinson (32-32): Patriots
Ben Rolfe (33-31): Patriots
Kyle Soppe (36-28): Dolphins
Dan Tomaro (35-29): Dolphins
Mike Wobschall (40-24): Patriots
Full Week 5 picks from PFN are available here.