Calling all bettors! The Miami Dolphins took the NFL by storm last season, until the storm swallowed them up. In assessing their 2024 Super Bowl odds, should we lean into this wager? Or will Miami underperform? And how will free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft impact their chances? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Dolphins Super Bowl 58 Odds
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader better market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the top favorite (+650 odds) to win this year’s Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were No. 2. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were No.’s 3 and 4, respectively — though, in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed. The Philadelphia Eagles weren’t even in the top third.
Entering last season, the Dolphins bordered along the bottom third, possessing the 21st most favorable odds at +3900. Because Buffalo was a runaway favorite to win the AFC East — while potentially hampering their intra-division rivals’ ability to earn a Wild Card spot — Miami actually had the second best odds in the division. Yes, it was that top heavy.
But that’s not the case as we look far ahead to the 2023 campaign. Miami is tied for the 12th best odds at +3000. So how should bettors respond?
2022 Season Takeaways
It was a tale of five seasons for the Dolphins, who went almost all in last spring after acquiring Tyreek Hill, forming one of the best receiving duos in the league. He and Jaylen Waddle were No. 10 and No. 12, respectively, in yards after the catch in 2021. Playing together in 2022, Hill remained at No. 10, while Waddle shot up to No. 5.
They were also No. 2 and No. 5, respectively, in NFL receiving yards, becoming only the fourth teammate duo in history to combine for 3,000+ receiving yards. Hill was the rare dominant acquisition who exceeded even the loftiest realistic expectations.
Of course, Tua Tagovailoa also was a big part of this team’s success, and his concussion woes highlighted the up-and-down nature of the season. When Tagovailoa was on the field, Miami went 8-5 and was in position to challenge Buffalo atop the AFC East standings.
But when Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson started — including in the playoffs — the team was 1-4 with six passing scores and nine interceptions.
Tagovailoa had the league’s highest TD percentage, or touchdown passes per throw (6.3%). He also led the NFL with a 105.5 passer rating. Yes, Hill and Waddle were big reasons why, and they’ll continue to play outsized roles in 2023. But Bridgewater and Thompson, too often, were liabilities on offense. By contrast, Tagovailoa, more often than not, looked like a franchise QB.
His health might be the key to Miami’s somewhat steep chances at winning their first Super Bowl in half a century. Will this franchise contentedly roll with Thompson as its No. 2 quarterback?
Perhaps Miami is hoping it won’t matter — that Tagovailoa will pick up where he left off in 2022 — and that he’ll be able to avoid another serious injury that could derail his season and Miami’s hopes of a title.
Elsewhere, it should be noted that the Fins’ defense frequently struggled, surrendering the ninth most points while tying for the second fewest forced turnovers. They also yielded the sixth most passing yards. And while their run defense was adequate on paper, opponents ran on them the fifth fewest times per game.
For its own running game, Miami will need to weigh the value of retaining the 31-year-old Raheem Mostert and 27-year-old Jeff Wilson Jr. — both possessing notable injury histories. For a team that ran less than 30 other franchises in 2022, Miami has a long way to go to present a balanced attack.
So yes, it was a tale of five seasons that began with a shocking 3-0 start in which the Dolphins vanquished the New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, and Bills. Then Tagovailoa got hurt in the second quarter in Week 4, and Miami proceeded to lose those next three contests.
The third part of the season kicked off when Tagovailoa returned in Week 7, helping to guide Miami to five straight wins. Then the Dolphins lost five straight, with Tagovailoa getting knocked out for the season.
The fifth and final part of the season saw the team limp past the New York Jets in Week 18 to reach the playoffs and then come oh-so-close to a stupefying upset over the Bills in Buffalo in the Wild Card round.
2023 Offseason Moves
At their best, the Dolphins proved they probably could beat anyone. But they need to shore up some key positions, hope their franchise QB stays healthy, and do it all with limited cap flexibility and no first-round draft pick.
I anticipate their odds will drop rather than go up this offseason. Several “good” teams are poised to get better before September. I believe Miami’s +3000 odds are too bullish, and that they’ll fall to around +3800 by the summer.
NFL Free Agency
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on key Dolphins arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to win it all.
In early May, we’ll update this section on key Dolphins draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any instant-impact players who could help catapult Miami to league-frontrunner status.
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