The Miami Dolphins will face the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Dolphins skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Tua Tagovailoa has completed 77.7% of his passes in three starts back (concussion), but the fantasy points have yet to pile up.
- Week 8: QB20
- Week 9: QB17
- Week 10: QB22
With a banged-up Tyreek Hill and a struggling Jaylen Waddle, the counting numbers have yet to come, but I’m tempted to trust him against a defense that ranks inside the bottom 10 in passing touchdown rate, completion percentage, and passer rating.
This week. My third tier of fantasy QBs extends from QB7-QB13, and Tagovailoa finds himself in the middle of that range. I like this to be his best week back, and that has me ranking him ahead of Jordan Love (at CHI) and Patrick Mahomes (at BUF).
De’Von Achane, RB
De’Von Achane was bottled up on Monday night against the Rams (52 yards and no touchdowns on 17 touches), but the game plan in Miami is to get him the ball in space, and that is going to elevate his floor to that of a Tier 2 running back.
In a game where Miami couldn’t move the ball or establish any push up front, their lead back still reached double figures in PPR fantasy points thanks to catching five passes, a total he’s hit in every one of Tua Tagovailoa’s starts this season.
The Raiders allow the 10th-most yards per carry to running backs this season, and with the built-in floor that is his pass-catching ability, a spike week could be in store for this explosive Dolphin. You’re starting him weekly and feeling privileged to do so.
Jaylen Wright, RB
If you think you’re seeing more of Jaylen Wright lately, you’re eyes aren’t deceiving you.
Wright’s snap shares by week, 2024:
- Week 8 vs. Arizona Cardinals: 4.7%
- Week 9 at Buffalo Bills: 15%
- Week 10 at Los Angeles Rams: 17%
That’s a positive trend with Tua Tagovailoa adding upside to Miami’s motion-oriented offense, but we aren’t close to labeling the explosive rookie as viable.
I do think there is something here in dynasty leagues, but in the scope of 2024, you can move on as roster spots become increasingly valuable.
Wright’s next catch will be his first as a pro, further capping his ability to make the most of his snaps. I certainly prefer the Week 10 usage surprise of Audric Estimé over Wright the rest of the way, but that’s pretty clear. Akers and Gus Edwards are less obvious names who are closer to meaningful roles that I’m rostering over Wright in redraft formats.
Raheem Mostert, RB
Raheem Mostert has cleared 30 receiving yards in consecutive games, but his role is trending in the wrong direction and his status as a roster-worthy player might not be here to stay.
Dolphins RB snap shares, Week 10:
- De’Von Achane: 69.8%
- Jaylen Wright: 17%
- Mostert: 15.1%
With Tua Tagovailoa back under center, there is a premium put on speed and tempo, boxes that Achane and Wright check at a higher level than the veteran. There is some scoring equity to chase here, but that’s a dangerous way to live at your Flex spot in a three-back committee that is happy to throw the ball.
Mostert is an injury away from holding Flex value, and that keeps him off of waiver wires for now. However, as we come down the stretch, this isn’t the type of player that needs to be held onto.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
Jaylen Waddle picked up 55 yards on Monday night’s first drive, a total he hadn’t reached since Week 1 and more than his previous three games combined; I thought the breakthrough game was upon us.
No dice.
He caught one ball for two yards the rest of the evening. That means that, aside from a single scripted drive to open Week 10, Waddle’s last four games have featured 118 routes run, nine catches, and 54 yards. That’s not just bad by Waddle’s standards but about as bad as it gets by any measure. That 0.46 yards per route run rate is on par with Mason Tipton and Parris Campbell this season.
Almost every player goes through ups and downs throughout a season, but this one is difficult to figure out because nothing in his profile has changed dramatically. His average depth of target, slot usage, and snap share are all in line with what we’d expect, but Waddle just isn’t producing.
Could that change against a Raiders defense that is in the bottom 10 in passer rating and touchdown rate? It could, but at this point, I’d prefer to see it before continuing to bet on it. Waddle ranks as a middling Flex play for me, even in a good matchup this week, sharing a tier with Jameson Williams (vs. JAX), Calvin Ridley (vs. MIN), and Jauan Jennings (vs. SEA).
Tyreek Hill, WR
Tyreek Hill was a game-time decision last week (wrist), and while he was active, he wasn’t as “active” by his lofty standards. The one-yard touchdown saved his stat line from a complete disaster, but he posted just a 14.8% on-field target share, a career low for a game started by Tua Tagovailoa.
It sounds as if this injury will have to be managed throughout, but given that the Dolphins have essentially no room for error the rest of the way, I fully expect their star receiver to play through it.
I’ve dropped him a touch in my rankings as a result of the ailment, but that just means he now ranks closer to WR12 on the week than WR5 — there’s nothing actionable to do on your end. No defense in the NFL allows touchdowns at a higher rate on short passes than the Raiders, so if the plan is to get Hill the ball in space and allow him to dictate how many hits he takes, that could still pay off in a significant way on Sunday.
Jonnu Smith, TE
I’ve got George Kittle at the top of my tight end rankings for the remainder of the season, and his profile looks a lot like Jonnu Smith’s since Week 5 in terms of usage.
George Kittle’s production, Weeks 5-10:
- 84.9% of snaps are routes
- 0.54 EPA per target
- 19.8% on-field target share
- 23% targets per route run
Jonnu Smith’s production, Weeks 5-10:
- 91.2% of snaps are routes
- 0.42 EPA/target
- 21.8% on-field target share
- 23% targets per route run
By no means am I saying that you treat Smith with the same level of respect as Kittle, but he’s a bigger part of this offense than I think most realize. If you’re fading a Jaylen Waddle rebound, Smith is likely to continue to see consistent work.
His ability to produce after the catch is no secret (his 33-yard catch and run on Monday night serving as the latest reminder), and with a career-high slot usage (46.8% of his routes), we are looking at a reasonably stable player with upside in this offense.
Smith checks in just about the Taysom Hill line for me — the line in the ranks where I believe the “safe” roles end and you throw caution to the wind in chasing upside.
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins Trends
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The Raiders are -14 in the turnover department, their worst mark through nine games since 2004 (-15).
QB: In his last two starts, Gardner Minshew is 24-30 when not pressured (80%, though none of those passes resulted in a touchdown).
Offense: Only once this season has Las Vegas scored more than two offensive touchdowns in a game (Week 2 vs. Panthers).
Defense: In their past two games, the Raiders have allowed 20 third down conversions (in their first seven games total: 24).
Fantasy: Despite the volume that comes from a favorable role, Jakobi Meyers has reached triple digits in air yards just once this season and has three games this season without a red zone target (two of which saw him not even run a route inside the opponents’ 20-yard line).
Betting: The Raiders have seen under tickets cash in five of their past six games played on extended rest.
Miami Dolphins
Team: Based on lookahead lines, the Dolphins are expected to have a +5 point differential for the remainder of the season.
QB: Tua Tagovailoa has thrown at least 28 passes and completed at least 71% of his attempts in all three of his games back from the concussion. Patrick Mahomes is the only other player to string together three games like that since the beginning of 2023.
Offense: The Dolphins have multiple red zone touchdowns in all three games since Tagovailoa’s return (they have zero such games through Week 7).
Defense: In Weeks 1-3, Miami allowed 58 first half points. In their six games since, they’ve coughed up just 38 first half points.
Fantasy: Miami threw a pass on seven of their first eight plays on Monday night against the Rams with a focus on getting Jaylen Waddle involved (three targets, two catches, 55 yards).
Betting: Under tickets have cashed in seven of Miami’s last eight home games in Week 11 or later.