Miami Dolphins prop bets 2022: Predictions for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle

We're recommending these six Miami Dolphins prop bets for the 2022 season surrounding Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle.

If you’re planning to make prop bets or any other wagers on season-long NFL player production, here are our suggested bets for some of the Miami Dolphins’ key playmakers. All prop bets are based on FanDuel over/unders, featuring Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle.

Top Miami Dolphins prop bets for 2022

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on 10 years of NFL research analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these assessments.

Tua Tagovailoa

FanDuel does not offer a prop bet for Tua Tagovailoa’s season-long passing yards, though we can safely imagine it will exceed last year’s total of 2,653. Entering his third NFL season, Tagovailoa is at a crossroads with the Dolphins. Either he’s a franchise QB, a franchise-elevating QB, or a bridge QB until Miami finds a “better” replacement.

The interesting thing is that Tua’s career passing numbers aren’t far off from Josh Allen’s in Allen’s first two professional campaigns. While he does relatively little on the ground, there are sensible reasons to believe Tagovailoa is on the verge of a breakout.

He has one of the best WR tandems in the league, plus a somewhat catch-friendly backfield. He has a strong No. 3 WR and a top-12 starting TE.

Despite facing the Bills’ and Patriots’ defenses a combined four times in the tough AFC East, Tagovailoa possesses the skills and personnel to take his game to the next level. With no hesitation, I’m recommending the following prop bets for one of the most undervalued NFL quarterbacks this coming season.

Passing TDs: Over 24.5
Interceptions: Under 13.5

Tyreek Hill

Fins Nation couldn’t have been more excited when their team traded for Tyreek Hill. But can this all-world receiver be as good in Miami as he was in Kansas City? On the one hand, talent is talent. On the other hand, this is an entirely different situation.

Hill was the Chiefs’ clear-cut WR1. Although Travis Kelce frequently out-targeted him, Hill took over the lead receiver role last year, racking up career highs in targets (159) and receptions (111).

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However, Hill averaged only four yards after the catch per reception — the lowest of his career. Playing alongside Jaylen Waddle, he realistically might not be the No. 1 wideout some or even a majority of weeks. And while I’m high on Tagovailoa’s development, he arguably represents a downgrade compared to Patrick Mahomes.

The good news? The betting market has already factored in this regression potential. Hill’s prop over/under bets for this season are too generous.

Receiving yards: Over 1,000.5
Receiving TDs: Over 7.5

Jaylen Waddle

It took a 1-4 start to the season last year for Miami to commit to Waddle as their weekly No. 1 receiver, as he averaged 7.2 targets in his first five games and then 9.5 in his final 11. Aside from Mike Gesicki, no other Dolphin surpassed 47% of Waddle’s reception total. The rookie wideout was a revelation for a receiver-desperate franchise.

Now the question is how the arrival of Hill (and to a lesser but still important extent, Cedrick Wilson Jr.) will impact Waddle. Sure, DeVante Parker is gone. But how much will an improved backfield and more high-end receiving weapons challenge Waddle’s development as an elite or near-elite receiver?

The betting market anticipates a statistical drop-off, likely because it assumes Tagovailoa cannot effectively feed two high-end WRs. I disagree. Waddle is as good a bet for 1,000+ yards as Hill, and both are more likely to surpass 1,000 than fall short. As a result, I’m recommending the following prop bets.

Receiving yards: Over 925.5
Receiving TDs: Over 5.5

BJ Rudell is the Betting Director for Pro Football Network. You can read all of BJ’s work here and follow him on Twitter: @BJRudell.

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