We’ve got a divisional battle in the first-ever Black Friday game, and it comes with no shortage of fantasy football decisions. The Miami Dolphins’ fantasy outlook revolves around their backfield while the New York Jets’ fantasy preview attempts to properly value Garrett Wilson following a change under center.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | Black Friday Special
- Spread: Dolphins -10
- Total: 41
- Dolphins implied points: 25.5
- Jets implied points: 15.5
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
After opening the season with two top-two finishes in three weeks, Tua Tagovailoa has finished better than QB9 just once since then. For a QB who has yet to reach double figures in rushing yards, the equation really is quite simple:
Average finish when he has a 40+ yard completion: QB6
When he doesn’t: QB19
My QB11 ranking of Tagovailoa this week is as low as I’ve gone this season. If you have Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, or Kyler Murray, I’m sitting Tagovailoa.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
The rookie was given the first carry of the game last week as he returned from injured reserve before again leaving injured. While De’Von Achane sat out the rest of the game, reports surfaced that he was chopping at the bit to return, an indicator that he should be all systems go this week.
We know the per-touch potential is rare, which has me considering both he and Raheem Mostert as RB2s this week. Although, I do think there is as much risk as potential reward.
Scroll down the RB rankings, and you’ll notice a lot of fringe backs in tough spots.
- Brian Robinson Jr. (at DAL)
- Zach Charbonnet (vs. SF)
- James Cook (at PHI)
- Alexander Mattison (vs. CHI)
If I’m going to gamble, I want to do it on an offense that I trust. I have both Dolphins ranked ahead of all of those listed options.
Editor’s note: Achane is not expected to play in Week 12 as he deals with his knee injury.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
It was a small sample before Achane left injured, but Mostert handled three carries to Achane’s zero on the second drive, as this was shaping up to be a full committee situation that has the potential to swing within a game based on performance.
This season, 43.5% of yards gained against the Jets come on the ground, easily the highest rate in the league. If that’s going to continue to be the case, both of these backs have the potential to score in double figures.
Editor’s note: With Achane now not expected to suit up, Mostert moves up the rankings to a high-end RB2 in Week 12. Make sure to check our free PFN Start/Sit Optimizer to see whether or not you should play him!
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
The Dolphins own the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the league, and that along with my feeling that the Jets are going to try to control tempo, result in my ranking of Hall as an RB1.
Hall has caught at least three passes in seven straight games. With a change at QB, it’s likely that the short passing game is leaned on heavily.
Efficiency has been an issue over the past month (2.3 YPC), but we know the one-play upside that Hall possesses. If New York can stay competitive — Miami hasn’t won the first quarter in five straight games — Hall should get 15-20 touches. That’s enough work for me to feel very comfortable playing him in all formats.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Once a team figures out how to defend this guy, let me know. Tyreek Hill’s 38-yard catch-and-run touchdown last week saw him hit the turbo button and move at a level that even the greatest athletes in the world can’t contain.
For those keeping track at home, Hill needs just 73 receiving yards to remain on pace for 2,000 yards.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
With an aDOT that is slightly below Hill’s, Jaylen Waddle is in a reasonable spot to return top-20 value for the fourth time this season.
The Jets own the second-lowest opponent aDOT and the second-lowest blitz rate. Their goal is to make you kill them with 1,000 paper cuts, giving Waddle a chance to rack up 5-7 catches.
He has cleared 55 receiving yards just once in his past seven games, but don’t let that detour you from rolling out Miami’s WR2 in your starting lineup.
The rules in today’s NFL are structured to give elite offenses the edge over elite defenses.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
If you exclude the New England Patriots and New York Giants, two teams without a WR1, the ‘Fins have allowed the opposing team’s top receiver to score in six straight games. Garrett Wilson is clearly that for the Jets, but with a change under center, you need to factor in plenty of risk.
I’m playing Wilson as a WR2. The downside is obvious, but QB play has been an issue all season, and he posted four straight top-25 finishes from Weeks 6-10. He’s ranked in the tier of Michael Pittman Jr., Deebo Samuel, and Adam Thielen this week for me.
Tyler Conklin, TE, New York Jets
He’s a boring option that has the potential to carve out a niche in an offense that is void of a secondary option, but you can afford to be patient here.
If Conklin shows a connection with Tim Boyle, you’ll have the opportunity to add him free of charge next week. Any time there is significant change within an offense, savvy fantasy managers act swiftly based on what they see.
I’m not saying Conklin will emerge, I’m just saying to track all usage markers in this game.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!