The Dolphins lead the all-time series 62-56-1, but the Bills have owned them as of late, winning nine of the last 10 meetings and the last seven straight in Orchard Park.
Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET on CBS. Jim Nantz and Tony Romo are on the call.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Game Preview
The Dolphins are aiming for their first 4-0 start since 1995 and give themselves a commanding two-game lead in the division, with tiebreakers over the Bills and Patriots in hand.
But it won’t be easy. Miami’s last win in Western New York came in 2016.
The Bills and Dolphins very well could be the best two teams in all of football. Miami leads the league in point differential (plus-59); Buffalo is a close second (plus-56).
These appear to be two evenly matched teams, and the betting public agrees. The Bills, as of Friday, were 2.5-point home favorites. Here are seven stats to know ahead of Sunday’s game, courtesy of Inside Edge.
7 Dolphins-Bills Stats From Inside Edge
Stat: Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) is averaging 6.1 yards per carry on first down this season — fourth best of qualified running backs. The Bills have allowed eight yards per carry on first down this season — worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins lead the NFL in both rushing and passing offense and will need a balanced attack to keep at bay a Bills defense that leads the NFL in both turnovers (9) and interceptions (7).
Plenty of praise will go to Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane for the record-setting 350 yards the #Dolphins rushed for.
Let me encourage you to watch Terron Armstead (72).
This is what an elite OT looks like. pic.twitter.com/GwgSWPYYyO
— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) September 25, 2023
Stat: Josh Allen (Bills) has a 109.4 passer rating at home since the 2022 season — second best of qualified quarterbacks. The Dolphins have allowed a passer rating of 105.3 on the road since the 2022 season — second worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins may have found something by benching Eli Apple and promoting Justin Bethel in Week 3. Miami will surely need a strong performance from everyone against Allen, who has cooked them in his career.
Stat: Stefon Diggs (Bills) has 133 receptions in 19 games (seven per game) since the 2022 season — sixth best of qualified wide receivers. The Dolphins have allowed 24.6 receptions per game since the 2022 season — second worst in the NFL.
Analysis: What does Diggs do best? Let’s ask Vic Fangio.
“Get open and catch the ball. He’s one of the top receivers in the league. The quarterback has good (chemistry) with him. He’s heavily targeted. He’s a top-level receiver in this league, and that’s one of the reasons their offense is scoring at a high pace.”
.@Commanders @BuffaloBills saw the 2 best players on the field dominate this contest @JoshAllenQB & @stefondiggs Over and Over again especially on 3rd downs. #BillsMafia #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/BfkXlthgwS
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) September 25, 2023
Stat: The Dolphins have gained at least five yards on 50% of first-down plays this season — third best in the NFL. The Bills have allowed at least five yards on 49.2% of first down plays this season — fifth worst in the league.
Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa on first downs this year has played like a Hall of Famer. He’s completed 75% of his attempts with four touchdowns, one interception, averaged 10.6 yards per attempt, and has a rating of 129.7.
Stat: The Bills have run successful plays on 50% of rush attempts this season — tied for second best in the NFL. Dolphins have allowed successful plays on 56% of rush attempts this season — worst in the league.
Analysis: The Dolphins are digging out of a giant statistical hole after allowing 223 yards and three touchdowns on 40 carries in the opener. Their rush EPA (.04) ranks 30th.
Stat: Dawson Knox (Bills) has averaged 5.5 fantasy points per game since the 2022 season — 10th best of qualified tight ends. The Dolphins have allowed an average of nine fantasy points per game to TEs since the 2022 season — fifth worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins are incorporating safety Brandon Jones (ACL tear in 2022) into their defense more and more as the weeks go on.
Stat: The Dolphins have gone three-and-out on 13.9% of their drives this season — third best in the NFL. Bills have forced three-and-outs on 16.1% of opponent drives this season — fifth worst in the league.
Analysis: If not for the turnovers, the Bills’ defense would look far different from a statistical standpoint. They have allowed 5.9 yards per carry (last in the NFL) and 5.3 yards per play (18th).
Dolphins vs. Bills Predictions
- Adam Beasley: Bills
- David Bearman: Dolphins
- Dalton Miller: Dolphins
- Jay Morrison: Dolphins
- Dallas Robinson: Dolphins
For all of PFN’s Week 4 predictions, click here.
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