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Matt Breida Waiver Wire Week 13: Is the Bills RB a value or fool’s gold?

Matt Breida's opportunities have increased in each of the past three games, making him a potential Week 13 fantasy waiver wire pickup.

The Buffalo Bills’ running back situation has been a complex puzzle all season. At first, it looked like Devin Singletary would run away with it. Then, he struggled, and Zack Moss popped for a couple of weeks. The latest iteration features former 49ers running back Matt Breida in a fantasy-relevant role. Should fantasy football managers add Breida off the Week 13 waiver wire?

Matt Breida has taken Zack Moss’ job

Week 10 was the first time Breida had been active since Week 2, but he only played 8 snaps. In Week 11, he played 18 snaps, marginalizing Moss to his lowest snap total of the season (16 snaps). In Week 12, Breida completely vanquished Moss to the ranks of the inactives.

With Breida now firmly in the RB2 role alongside Singletary, the question fantasy managers are asking is whether Breida can maintain fantasy value.

Devin Singletary remains the lead back

Moss’ demotion has been more of a boon for Singletary than Breida. Last week, Singletary played 68% of the snaps, his highest total since Week 1. He carried the ball 15 times for 44 yards and added 1 reception for 4 yards.

Meanwhile, Breida played 32% of the snaps for a second consecutive week. He played well in Weeks 10 and 11, but it didn’t amount to an increase in playing time. He is still clearly behind Singletary.

Breida has been efficient on limited usage

Although Breida is not on the field much, when he is, he’s been productive. Since Week 10, Breida’s opportunities (carries + targets) have increased each week. In Week 10, he had 6 opportunities. That increased to 7 opportunities in Week 11 and 11 in Week 12.

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Breida’s Week 10 and 12 performances were both fantasy-viable, but we must examine the underlying reasons why. In both of those games, Breida scored a touchdown. Last Thursday, Breida caught a 23-yard score on his final touch of the game. Had that play not happened, Breida would’ve posted 4.2 PPR fantasy points and no one would be talking about him.

Should fantasy managers add Breida off the Week 13 waiver wire?

As is often the case with fringe running backs, the answer depends on your unique situation. Someone in your league is going to claim Breida. Should it be you? Well, do you need a running back?

Breida has a weekly floor of roughly 5-7 points. That’s nothing to write home about, but it’s also not zero.

There’s also the potential for Breida to see increased work going forward. He’s played well. Perhaps his nose for the end zone made an impression on Buffalo’s coaching staff. This is the most compelling case for Breida — the potential for more.

Fantasy managers with an open roster spot would certainly be wise to take a shot on Breida. There are other potential waiver wire additions this week, such as Alexander Mattison and Jamaal Williams. Breida is certainly behind them in the pecking order, but he’s worth a stash on the possibility he becomes an every-week RB3 going forward.

Jason Katz is a Fantasy Analyst at Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter: @jasonkatz13 and find more of his work here. Don’t forget to listen to the PFN Fantasy Football podcast and check out our free fantasy newsletter.

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