The second piece of fantasy-relevant news to come out Thursday night was not nearly as surprising. In fact, it was mostly expected.
After years of ignoring the position, the Kansas City Chiefs finally got Patrick Mahomes a suitable WR2, signing Marquise Brown to a one-year deal. While this is obviously good for Mahomes and the offense overall, does Rashee Rice’s fantasy football value take a hit?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Hollywood Brown Signing With the Kansas City Chiefs?
Mahomes took over as starting QB in 2018. For the first four years of his tenure, he had Tyreek Hill as his WR1 but no viable WR2. After Hill left ahead of the 2022 season, Mahomes had JuJu Smith-Schuster as his WR1, but no viable WR2. Last year, Mahomes entered the season with no real WR1 at all.
Over the course of the season, rookie Rashee Rice emerged as Mahomes’ top receiver. He earned that role with improved play throughout the year. But, as has been the case for Mahomes’ entire career, there was no true WR2.
In 2024, for the first time ever, Mahomes will have two quality receivers. Most importantly for fantasy managers, the Chiefs will actually have two receivers worth drafting.
Last season, Rice was primarily targeted near the line of scrimmage. His 4.8 aDOT (average depth of target) was 99th in the league. Nearly 70% of his 938 receiving yards came after the catch.
Marquise Brown provides the perfect complement. Although he’s been more than a deep threat (his highest aDOT was 13.0 in 2020, 25th in the league), Brown has 4.32 speed. Rice is not burning anyone deep. But Brown certainly can.
Given that these two can operate in completely different areas of the field, this is a rare situation where I don’t think Brown’s presence negatively impacts Rice’s fantasy value all that much.
Rice is still going to need volume to produce. Fortunately, he should get it. The Chiefs have openly stated they want to be careful not to overload Travis Kelce during the season. He could easily take another step back in terms of target share, paving the way for both Rice and Brown to eclipse the 25% mark.
Rice averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game on a 17.9% target share last season. Even if that merely ticks up to 22-23%, he can be a high WR2.
Brown saw a 22.8% target share but was without Kyler Murray for half the season and was banged-up himself over the second half. We’ve already seen what he looks like as the top option in a passing game. He averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game over the first six weeks of the 2022 season.
We’re certainly not going to project him to reach those heights in Kansas City, but even 14 points per game would likely make him a worthwhile pick in fantasy drafts.
Patrick Mahomes Might Actually Be Undervalued This Season
For the first time in his career, Mahomes failed to average 20 fantasy points per game and did not finish inside the top six quarterbacks last year. After a career-low 7.0 yards per attempt, fantasy managers are no longer treating him like a slam-dunk elite QB1.
As a reminder, in 2022, Mahomes averaged 25.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall QB2. His WR1 was JuJu. His WR2 was Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
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Hill and anyone are greater than Rice and Hollywood, but Rice and Brown are undoubtedly the best true WR duo Mahomes has had in his career. With Mahomes no longer a consensus top-three pick at the position and going quite a bit later than Josh Allen, he might be the perfect pick amidst the flatness of the running backs and wide receivers that go in the fourth and fifth rounds.