Despite throwing for an average of 12 touchdown passes per season over his five years in the NFL, the New York Giants decided to give Daniel Jones another year under center when they selected dynamic LSU WR Malik Nabers at No. 6 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.
What does Nabers’ fantasy football ceiling look like in this Giants’ passing offense that hasn’t produced a top-30 WR over Jones’ entire tenure as the starter?
Malik Nabers’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
The fantasy football community has become used to a particular cycle from this New York passing game over the last five years. The Giants will draft a talented receiver who fantasy managers get excited about seeing a fantasy-relevant role in this offense only to watch this unit continue to struggle.
Names like Kadarius Toney, Jalin Hyatt, and Wan’Dale Robinson have all had a game or two of fantasy relevance, but no Giants WR has managed to catch 70+ passes or register 800+ yards receiving over the last five years.
Naturally, these struggles have made New York a bottom-three passing offense since 2019, which makes it pretty difficult to project any receiver on the roster with a high fantasy ceiling in 2024 as Jones retains his starting role.
Well, I’m here to tell you that the one hope for a fantasy star to emerge from this offense this year is Nabers. His exceptional pro day performance helped validate all of the buzz surrounding the LSU WR, who ran an unofficial 4.35-second 40-yard dash in front of scouts in March.
Nabers’ elite separation skills, dynamic playmaking ability after the catch, route-running nuance, and excellent ball skills suggest he is going to be an instant fantasy impact player at the NFL level. Given the current state of the Giants’ WR room, one could reasonably expect for Nabers to not just be a target funnel this year, but the feature player in this New York offense.
The last time we saw a Giants WR fantasy register a top-25 finish was Odell Beckham Jr. back in 2018 when Eli Manning was still the quarterback. Quite frankly, Nabers’ exceptional movement skills remind me a bit of Beckham, which makes him a player who has the skills to make an instant fantasy impact as a rookie.
I know the Giants’ offense has been mostly rough outside of the contributions we’ve seen from Saquon Barkley, who is no longer on the team, but head coach Brian Daboll did utilize Stefon Diggs in a feature role during his offensive coordinator days with the Buffalo Bills, which led to Diggs producing WR3 and WR7 fantasy seasons in their two years together.
Offensive coordinator Mike Kafka is another member of this staff who has extensive experience getting the ball into the hands of a dynamic player like Nabers. Kafka helped scheme up ideal ways to get the ball into the hands of WR Tyreek Hill during their days together with the Kansas City Chiefs.
I’m well aware Jones hasn’t topped 3,300 passing yards or 15 touchdown passes over his four NFL seasons, but since we can reasonably project a sizeable target share and Nabers’ explosive big-play ability, Nabers’ path to fantasy success early in his career is certainly present.
Nabers’s ADP is No. 51 overall as the WR24, which puts him in the same range as Zay Flowers, Dalton Kincaid, and Tee Higgins.
One can certainly dissect whether or not Nabers should be drafted ahead of some of these players mentioned, given the upside they all represent in their current situations. But Nabers coming off the board as a high-upside WR3 feels like an appropriate price.
There is risk involved in investing middle-round fantasy draft capital for a rookie prospect in one of the league’s worst passing offenses, but Nabers’ elite playmaking ability and projected alpha target share make him a calculated risk worth taking in the fifth round in 2024.
Should You Select Malik Nabers at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 52nd Overall (WR24)
- Rookie Impact: Malik Nabers enters the NFL as one of the most highly touted wide receiver prospects, although he’s still a rookie. Historically, rookies can provide tremendous value, especially in the second half of the season, making Nabers a potential game-changer for fantasy managers.
- College Success: Nabers posted impressive numbers at LSU, including 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns as a junior. He brings a strong track record to the Giants, who have lacked a true WR1 for several years.
- 2024 Outlook: Nabers steps into a wide-open WR room in New York, where he could quickly become the top target. With minimal competition for targets, there’s a realistic chance Nabers could push for a 30% target share as a rookie, giving him a strong foundation for fantasy success.
- ADP Value: Nabers is currently being drafted as the WR24, 52nd overall. While this might seem low for a rookie with his potential, it reflects the uncertainty surrounding his situation, including the Giants’ quarterback play.
- Risk vs. Reward: Drafting Nabers comes down to your fantasy philosophy. He offers a high ceiling but also carries risk, especially given the Giants’ unstable quarterback situation. Nabers could be a top-five talent, but his performance will largely depend on the quality of QB play he receives.
- Final Verdict: If you’re willing to embrace uncertainty and target young, high-upside players, Nabers is a compelling choice at his current ADP. He’s ranked as my WR22, and I’m eager to draft him if the opportunity arises.