The Los Angeles Rams will face the New England Patriots in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Rams skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Matthew Stafford, QB
The season has been a little rocky for Matthew Stafford. He had a Thursday night gem against the Vikings when he got both of his receivers back (25-of-34 for 279 yards and four scores), but he also has a few games like Monday night against Miami, a game in which he averaged just 6.4 yards per pass and didn’t see any of his 46 attempts result in a score.
Without rushing equity or much splash-play potential (zero 40-yard completions since September), starting a QB with this profile is a tough sell. Add in the fact that the Rams are a five-point road favorite and have a running back in Kyren Williams with whom they are comfortable melting the clock, and Stafford isn’t a top-15 play for me this week.
Kyren Williams, RB
Kyren Williams being held out of the end zone in consecutive games felt like an impossibility in September, but here we are. Efficiency has been a major issue in this profile all season long (-0.09 EPA per rush this season), but we’ve been willing to overlook it because the touchdowns felt like a birthright.
But now? Now we have some problems. Williams is still a weekly starter without much question because the role inside the 10-yard line is all his, and we trust this offense to move the ball. But the rushing résumé isn’t all that impressive.
- Consecutive games without a 10-yard rush
- Yards per carry before contact are down 24.3% from last season
- Yards per carry after contact are down 26.2% from last season
Williams sits closer to RB15 than RB5 for me this week and moving forward, something that felt impossible less than a month ago.
Cooper Kupp, WR
We’ve yet to see the history-setting version of Cooper Kupp this season, but there’s a chance he peaks at the perfect time, as he is coming off of his best game relative to fantasy expectations (+33.6%).
In the loss to the Dolphins, Kupp’s fantasy points per target and EPA per target were both as good as they’ve been this season — trends that I’m willing to buy into.
This is a condensed passing game, which is the type of structure that can allow both Kupp and Puka Nacua to return top-15 value at the position moving forward. In Week 10, that dynamic duo accounted for 60.8% of Los Angeles’ receiving yards. The Rams have struggled to move the ball with consistency on the ground, which opens up even greater usage for both of their star receivers.
Los Angeles remains in a competitive spot and will be pushing hard for the next three weeks, understanding that they have the Bills and 49ers in a five-day stretch come December. You drafted Kupp with the potential that he could take over for weeks at a time, and we seem to be circling such a performance.
Demarcus Robinson, WR
Demarcus Robinson was kept on rosters in most of my leagues after he scored multiple touchdowns in consecutive games following the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but I think we can stop it with that charade.
This offense is highly concentrated around three players, and Robinson isn’t one of them. He made a nice play on the sideline last week against the Dolphins, but that was his only touch of the evening as Matthew Stafford was much more efficient when targeting anyone else.
Rams WR catch rates, Week 10 vs. Dolphins:
- Robinson: 20% catch rate
- All other Rams: 79.5% catch rate
If you have the room on your roster, Robinson profiles as the rare receiver handcuff to both Nacua and Kupp, but the standalone value was always going to be a pipe dream.
Puka Nacua, WR
Per our NFL Week 11 Trends and Insights piece (up every Tuesday morning, check it out!), Puka Nacua has seen at least seven targets in 18 of his 21 career games, matching the most by any player in the 2000s for such games through 21 career contests (tied with Anquan Boldin and Allen Robinson).
That’s a cute stat to tell you what you know — this man is on the short list of best target earners in our game and plays with the WR elevator that is Matthew Stafford. Nacua doubled up Cooper Kupp in the target department in Monday night’s loss to the Dolphins and should be viewed as a WR1 in this offense in terms of usage.
Of course, Kupp still gets plenty of looks and soaks up red-zone usage in bulk. But with a struggling defense, there’s no reason that both can’t be viewed as locked-in assets on a weekly basis.
For the season, the Patriots own the fifth-lowest interception rate and rank 25th in pressure rate. Stafford will have time and the green light to be aggressive. I prefer Nacua to Kupp in this spot, but both are to be viewed as top-15 options and very live in a DFS setting at cost.
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots Trends
Los Angeles Rams
Team: Week 11 was when the Rams made their move last season (3-6 through 10 weeks before winning seven of eight to close the season).
QB: Matthew Stafford has now thrown an interception in six straight games, matching the longest streak of his career.
Offense: The Rams have scored more than 20 points in regulation just twice this season and it’s possible those instances came against the top two defenses they’ll face this season (Week 3 vs 49ers and Week 8 vs. Vikings).
Defense: The Rams won the first half in six of seven games to end last regular season but have won just two of nine first halves this season.
Fantasy: Puka Nacua has seen at least seven targets in 18 of his 21 career games, matching the most by any player in the 2000’s for such games through 21 career contests (tied with Anquan Boldin and Allen Robinson).
Betting: The Rams are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) in their past eight road games played on short rest.
New England Patriots
Team: There were 62 points scored in their Week 6 loss against the Texans. In Week 7, New England saw a total of 48 points scored, followed by 47 in Week 8, 37 in Week 9, and a whopping 22 on Sunday in Chicago.
QB: Drake Maye averages 2.1 more yards per pass attempt against man coverage than zone, the third-highest difference in the league (Sam Darnold and Jalen Hurts).
Offense: New England allows pressure when not blitzed at the second-highest rate in the NFL (38.1%, league average: 31.8%).
Defense: The Patriots tied their franchise record with nine sacks on Sunday vs. the Chicago Bears. Seven of those came when New England blitzed, the most sacks by any team when blitzing in a game since 2018.
Fantasy: Lamar Jackson (eight straight) and Drake Maye (five, active streak) are the only QBs this season with a 15-plus yard run in four straight starts this season.
Betting: The Patriots covered their last home game (Week 8 against the Jets), and that’s lovely, but don’t forget that they hadn’t covered a home game in the 369 days prior.