Lions vs. Bills Player Props for Thanksgiving Football: Josh Allen, Jamaal Williams, Stefon Diggs, and Others

The Lions vs. Bills player props are a prime appetizer for Thanksgiving dinner. Here's where PFN falls on key players in this Thursday NFL matchup.

Happy Thanksgiving! If you’re planning to bet on Week 12 NFL player props for this hunger-inducing Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills Thursday matchup, then you’ve come to the right place.

We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.

Top Lions vs. Bills Player Props To Target

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

Jared Goff Player Props

Can Jared Goff put as much pressure on Buffalo as other recent opposing QBs? Last weekend, Jacoby Brissett threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns. A shaky Kirk Cousins managed 357 yards and a score the week before.

But Brissett needed 41 pass attempts — his second most of the season. Cousins threw a season-high 50 passes.

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That air-focused approach used to be Detroit football. Yet during their current three-game winning streak, Goff’s attempted only 26 passes each game while averaging only 179 yards. After throwing six picks in his first six games, Goff has thrown only one in his last four.

The Lions’ narrow path to a huge Thanksgiving upset hinges on a robust ground game led by Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Goff has been more effective as a situational playmaker. That should keep his overall numbers relatively muted.

  • Passing yards under 249.5
    (-120) — BetMGM
  • Pass attempts under 35.5
    (-125) — BetMGM
  • Passing touchdowns under 1.5
    (-148) — FanDuel

Jamaal Williams Player Props

I’m throwing conventional wisdom out the window, believing that D’Andre Swift will be Detroit’s most valuable RB today. Yes, it seems strange. And props makers might agree, as Swift doesn’t have any over/under lines as of Wednesday.

No doubt, Jamaal Williams has been electric as the de facto No. 1 RB. 12 rushing TDs? That’s nine more than his career high. He has a respectable 1.8 yards after contact, which is 0.4 yards higher than last year (though a bit worse than 2020). And he’s averaged a healthy 17 carries per game since Week 3.

But perhaps he’s slowing down a bit. He hasn’t cleared 3.8 yards per carry in any of his last three outings. He hasn’t caught a pass since November. Seven of his scores have come from the 1-yard line.

He’s playing well above his career norm, and I don’t see a healthy Swift continuing to play second or third fiddle behind him. While Williams surely could pick up 30-40 rushing yards, or even 50, I’m drawing the line at over 55.

  • Rushing yards under 55.5
    (-114) — FanDuel

Josh Allen Player Props

How much is Josh Allen’s elbow injury impacting him? This is a golden matchup against one of the league’s worst defenses. At the same time, Buffalo might not need “elite Allen” for this one. A heavy dose of rushing and timely passing should be enough.

Allen uncharacteristically has only two TD passes and four interceptions in his last two games. In fact, four days ago, he finished with less than 200 passing yards and merely seven rushing yards.

I’m eyeing a slightly more unleashed Allen, but not yet at a pre-injury level. 225-250 passing yards and 15-25 rushing yards seem realistic.

  • Passing yards under 281.5
    (-115) — DraftKings
  • Rushing yards under 42.5
    (-115) — DraftKings
  • Passing touchdowns under 2.5
    (-200) — FanDuel

Stefon Diggs Player Props

This is a tough one. I really like Stefon Diggs bouncing back after netting his lowest target total of the season on Sunday. But his props seem too high. I’m not convinced Allen is ready to let loose.

Five or six catches for 70-80 yards, and probably a score? That all sounds reasonable. But I’m not ready to go higher until Allen demonstrates he’s healthy enough to be elite.

  • Receptions under 6.5
    (+115) — DraftKings
  • Receiving yards under 90.5
    (-114) — FanDuel

Dawson Knox Player Props

Detroit has surrendered the seventh most TE receiving yards, and unlike most opponents, the Bills have no obvious offensive weakness. Essentially, the Lions can get beaten a number of ways, and locking down Dawson Knox probably won’t be a top-three priority. I expect Knox to get enough looks to justify these prop bets.

  • Receptions over 3.5
    (-120) — DraftKings
  • Receiving yards over 37.5
    (-114) — FanDuel
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