The Detroit Lions will travel to take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 9. Here are our betting picks and predictions for this matchup from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Detroit Lions (-3.5, 48.5) at Green Bay Packers
Soppe: Jordan Love’s quick return to action has kept this spread manageable, and that’s enough for me to back the best team in the NFC (and maybe in the NFL?).
As good as the Detroit Lions’ offense has been, it’s the other side of the ball that I think gets this ticket to the finish line. Detroit has the second-lowest opponent passer rating (77.2), and with me expecting Green Bay to end up in a one-dimensional game state (Josh Jacobs has been great, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury), that’s an impactful strength.
The Green Bay Packers have relied heavily on takeaways this season, but with the ball rarely hitting the turf in Goff’s offense these days, that’s a dangerous way to live. Favorites are 6-1 ATS (85.7%) in the past seven NFC North divisional matchups featuring a road favorite — the Lions make a statement win and the Packers limp into their bye looking for ways to peak down the stretch.
Pick: Lions -3.5
Soppe: We like the star power on both offenses, but both of these teams rank in the top 10 in rush rate over expectation, something that leads me to believe this could be a lower total possessions game than most assume.
We know the Lions want to use their two-back system to dictate tempo and are we sure the Packers can stop them?
Green Bay’s rush defense (vs. RBs) ranks, 2024:
- 15th in rush TD%
- 25th in success rate
- 26th in third-down conversion rate
- 30th in first-down rate
This bet is listed as a coin flip due to Goff’s success this season (five straight multi-TD pass games), but I’d argue that they haven’t truly feared an opposing offense all season. I’m operating with the assumption that Detroit wants to keep Green Bay’s offense off the field; if that’s the case, a fifth straight game with well under 30 pass attempts is likely.
Pick: Jared Goff under 1.5 touchdown passes
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions have scored 30-plus points in four straight games – it’s the first SEASON in which they’ve scored 30 points in four games during the 2000s.
QB: Detroit has won five straight games, and in those games, Jared Goff has a 146.6 in-pocket passer rating (78-94 for 1,023 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception).
Offense: Jahmyr Gibbs has a 45-plus yard rush TD in consecutive games, the fifth running back to do that since 2016 (others: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt).
Defense: In four of their past six games, the Lions have held their opponent to an under-30 % conversion rate on third downs (last week vs. Titans: 3-0]of-11, 27.3%).
Fantasy: David Montgomery has scored in six of seven games this season, but he hasn’t cleared a dozen carries in a game since Week 3 at Arizona.
Betting: Since 2020, the Lions have been 28-13 ATS (68.3%) in games played after Halloween, which is three full games better than any other team.
Green Bay Packers
Team: The Packers ended last regular season winning six of eight games, and they’ve opened this season with a 6-2 mark (of those four losses, three came by fewer than six points).
QB: Jordan Love has thrown an interception in every game this season, and eight of nine have come when operating in the pocket.
Offense: The Packers entered the red zone on a season-high 46.2% of their drives against the Jaguars.
Defense: Green Bay forced Jacksonville to go three-and-out on 58.3% of their drives last week, the defense’s best showing this season.
Fantasy: The status of the QB position means the world in terms of fantasy efficiency for Josh Jacobs. In his last two games with Love starting, he’s come in 38.4% over expectation – in Malik Willis’ two starts, 39% under expectation.
Betting: Since 2020, the NFC North has the three top teams in over percentage in games played after Halloween (Packers: 62.8%, Lions: 61%).