We still have a long season ahead, but with how the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears, especially, have looked so far this season, we have reason to believe the 2023 NFC North title will come down to the Lions and Packers.
For Lions vs. Packers tonight, Detroit finds themselves in very rare territory as a 1.5-point favorite at Green Bay.
The Detroit Lions (-1.5) are currently road favorites at the Green Bay Packers in Week 4.
If the line holds, it would the FIRST time in nearly 40 years the Lions are favorites in Lambeau when taking on the Packers' starting QB (1986, Lions -2.5 vs. Randy Wright)
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) September 25, 2023
With both teams sitting at 2-1, who will have sole possession of first place in the NFC North through four weeks after tonight? Our team of betting experts gives their Lions vs. Packers predictions, including picks against the spread, player props, and more.
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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
Lions -115, Packers -105
- Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET
- How To Watch
Amazon Prime Video
Bearman: For 45 minutes, most of us were right about the Packers losing to the New Orleans Saints in Week 3. But then, Jordan Love and the offense took over, scoring 18 points in the final minutes of the game.
The Lions pushed the previously undefeated Atlanta Falcons around in an easy win, but this is a tougher task at Lambeau. While Detroit ended years of frustration, winning in Green Bay last season to end the Aaron Rodgers era, I lean towards the home team — who is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) this season — getting points here.
I also have a player prop I like for tonight. Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone for 71, 102, and 102 yards in each of his three games this season, including 9-102 while banged up ahead of the Falcons game.
His number sits at 72.5, which I like to go over. Full transparency: He went for 49 and 55 last year vs. the Packers, but 28 targets in three games this year is an average of over nine per game, which should lead to over 72 yards.
Picks: Packers +1.5 (-110 at FanDuel), Amon-Ra St. Brown over 72.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: I also like the Packers in this one. They had an inspiring comeback down 17-0 going into the fourth quarter last week, and this was without David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and Jaire Alexander. Granted, this comeback happened once Derek Carr was ruled out.
It sounds like they should be getting at least Jones and Alexander back this week, with Watson being a possibility as well. Getting those players back will be a huge boost in this early-season divisional matchup. Without Jones, the Packers have averaged just 282 yards per game, as they have missed his explosiveness out of the backfield, both as a runner and receiver.
It’s not breaking news to report that Jared Goff is a different quarterback on the road compared to at home. Last season, he threw for 23 TDs and three INTs at home compared to six TDs and four INTs on the road. For his career, his QB rating on the road is nine points lower than at home.
When there’s a divisional matchup between two nearly even teams on a short week, I’m generally always going to lean toward the home team, especially when it’s a short spread.
There aren’t many player props on the board currently with Jones, Watson, and David Montgomery all listed as questionable, but one I do like is Sam LaPorta’s under 45.5 receiving yards.
The rookie has exceeded his early expectations so far, as tight ends typically don’t contribute right away. However, after two games in a row against the second and seventh-worst teams in defending tight ends last season, LaPorta is going against a Packers defense that allowed the second-fewest yards to tight ends last season.
LaPorta had 84 yards on 11 targets last week, but take away his 45-yard touchdown in which he was wide open, and he would’ve gone under his receiving yards prop for tonight on 10 targets.
Fanatics currently has the best number for this prop, but I also like the under at 44.5, which you can get at FanDuel if Fanatics isn’t available in your state.
Picks: Packers +1.5 (-110 at FanDuel), LaPorta under 45.5 receiving yards (-120 at Fanatics)
Katz: For 31 NFL teams, they start the same exact quarterback every week (in theory). For the Lions, they have two: Home Jared Goff and Road Jared Goff. These are two entirely different quarterbacks that vastly differ in talent.
Over his last 13 road starts, Goff has thrown multiple touchdowns just once. While the Packers haven’t exactly faced the most imposing opposing quarterbacks, they have yet to allow more than a single passing touchdown in a game.
Pick: Jared Goff under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 at DraftKings)
Katz: This is late addition, but it’s not my fault! The uncertainty of the status of Aaron Jones prevented sportsbooks from posting lines on any of the running backs. Well, we’ve got one now.
AJ Dillon is averaging 2.74 yards per carry. Last week, he saw his snap share drop 16% from the week before as he ceded snaps to Patrick Taylor. With Jones back, I think the Packers move even further away from Dillon. Add in the fact that the Lions have been pretty good against the run, and I don’t see Dillon having anywhere to go tonight.
Pick: AJ Dillon under 35.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Katz: Another late addition as I was waiting for the line to come down. Luke Musgrave has totaled 49 receiving yards in two of his first three games. A whopping 34.8% of the total receiving yards allowed by the Lions has gone to tight ends, the highest percentage in the league.
Pick: Luke Musgrave over 35.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Playing the boring angle isn’t as fun as betting on a shootout, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Through three weeks, both of these teams rank …
- Outside the top 12 in first-half scoring
- Top 11 in yards per play on defense
- Below average in pace of play
In addition to that first trend, both of these teams currently rank in the top 10 in second-half scoring. Of course, it is very early, and the numbers are still being solidified, but those are some interesting notes to be aware of for a Thursday nighter.
Dating back to last season, the last six TNF games have seen no more than seven points scored in the first quarter, and in those games, on average, 40.3% of the projected total points have been scored in the first half. Given this total, those numbers would put us at roughly 18.5 points scored in the first half and have me targeting a slow start in a few ways for this battle of NFC North foes.
Picks: Under 7.5 Q1 points with under 22.5 1H points (+152 at FanDuel), second half to be the highest scoring half (-120 at DraftKings)