Lions vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets: Picks Include Jahmyr Gibbs, Brandon Aiyuk, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Others

What are the top Lions vs. 49ers player prop bets that our NFL betting experts have identified ahead of the NFC Championship Game?

The NFC Championship Game sees two teams loaded with exciting offensive talent go head to head in Levi’s Stadium. Both the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers will be desperate to make it to the Super Bowl, but which players will be the ones to stand up and make a difference this week?

As the Super Bowl 58 field finally gets set, what are the top Lions vs. 49ers player prop bets that our NFL betting experts have identified this week?

Top Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Bets

Brandon Aiyuk Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at ESPN BET)

Soppe: The Lions are a bottom-12 defense in passer rating and yards per pass.

San Francisco has played five games against similarly porous defenses and won each of those contests by at least 12 points. In the center of the action was Brandon Aiyuk, as he posted a 78.8% catch rate and averaged 118.8 receiving yards in those games (over 110 yards in four of them).

He was an efficient option that also carried a strong upside — he had a 28+ yard catch in each of those wins. There are a variety of ways to use that data (receptions props, touchdown props, etc.), and with Deebo Samuel ailing, I’m not sure there’s a wrong way to do it!

Rolfe: We saw last week what a number one wide receiver can do against this Lions’ secondary, with Mike Evans putting up 147 yards. Over the course of the regular season, the Lions’ defense allowed an average of 171.17 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.

With Samuel expected to be limited, we should see plenty of Aiyuk in this game. In three of the final four regular season games, Aiyuk had over 100 receiving yards. He has had a couple of down games now and is primed for a big bounceback against the Lions this week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 85.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at FanDuel)

Soppe: The 49ers are a top-12 defense in Passer Rating and yards per pass, that is something we know.

Detroit played four games against similarly stingy defenses this season, and while they won three of those contests, their top receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown, was held in check. In those games, he averaged just 6.4 yards per target and never reached 80 receiving yards (all other games: 9.7 yards per target, 80+ receiving yards in 85.7% of games).

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Take this specific matchup a bit further, and your confidence in “The Sun God” will continue to cloud. Since their Week 9 bye, the 49ers are allowing 6.5 yards per target to opposing WR1s (I excluded the Cardinals game due to no WR1 being on their roster and the Week 18 game against primarily reserve Rams) and have held the opponent’s top target under 73 yards in seven of eight games despite that player seeing 24.7% of the targets.

Based on that back-of-the-napkin math, St. Brown needs to clear 13 targets to hit his number, something he can certainly do but not something I deem as likely, especially if you, like me, think San Francisco wins the time of possession battle.

Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 14.5 yards (-135 at DraftKings)

Blewis: Jahmyr Gibbs had such a spectacular rookie season that he has people re-evaluating their arguments against drafting running backs in the first round. Against the Buccaneers, he ran for 74 yards on just nine carries, including a 31-yard touchdown.

After a terrific performance last week, Gibbs is well-positioned for another big game in this matchup against the 49ers’ defense. While San Francisco allowed the third-fewest rushing yards during the regular season, this was mostly due to them having such big leads over their opponents, as the underlying metrics don’t support this unit having a stout run defense.

During the regular season, the 49ers’ run defense was 26th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate. Against Green Bay in a very close game, their struggles against the run were on full display, as Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards on just 18 carries, including a 53-yard run.

While Gibbs doesn’t have the same volume as Jones — David Montgomery is the clear lead back in Detroit — the rookie doesn’t need a ton of carries to go over his prop line of just 45.5 rushing yards.

Gibbs is one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL, with his 16 carries of 15+ yards during the regular season trailing only Christian McCaffrey.

I like Gibbs to surpass his rushing total, but my favorite player prop is for his longest rush to go over 14.5 yards — a line that he has hit in 15 of 19 games this season.

Katz: With only two games on the docket, options are limited. When Brian initially pointed out that Gibbs’ longest rush line was back down to reasonable numbers, I was all in as well.

Recently, books have pushed Gibbs’ longest rush line up toward 17.5 and 18.5. That’s just too high. But now that it’s back at 14.5, this is my top prop bet as well for all of the reasons Brian pointed out.

Brock Purdy Over 279.5 Passing Yards (-115 at ESPN BET)

Rolfe: We have heard a lot about Brock Purdy and his style of play, but this game is one where we could see him open it up and throw the ball around in a nice matchup. Purdy has gone over 280 yards on seven occasions, compared to 10 games below that mark. While it may seem worse than a 50/50 proposition, this is all about the matchup.

The Lions’ defense ranked 27th in the NFL in terms of total passing yards allowed and 29th when it comes to net yards per attempt. That has been especially bad in the past few weeks.

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They have allowed over 300 passing yards in each of their last five games, including twice to Nick Mullens.

In contrast, only one team was better against the run this year than the Lions front. They have not allowed 100 rushing yards in any of their last six games. While Christian McCaffrey is not your league-average RB, I expect the 49ers to lean heavily on their passing game this week.

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