Lions vs. 49ers Predictions and Expert Picks for the NFC Championship: Will Jared Goff or Brock Purdy Lead Their Team to Victory?

Which Lions vs. 49ers odds and betting lines do our NFL betting experts see as good value for the NFC Championship Game?

The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers will face off in Levi’s Stadium in the NFC Championship Game for a place in Super Bowl 58. With both teams having somewhat differing styles of play, who will come out on top in the Bay Area?

Ahead of kickoff, our NFL betting experts give their Lions vs. 49ers predictions for how they see this game playing out and where they can see value in the current betting lines and odds.

Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds

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  • Spread
    49ers -7
  • Moneyline
    Lions +270, 49ers -340
  • Total
    51.5

Lions vs. 49ers Predictions and Expert Picks

Blewis: Jahmyr Gibbs had such a spectacular rookie season that he has people re-evaluating their arguments against drafting running backs in the first round. Against the Buccaneers, he ran for 74 yards on just nine carries, including a 31-yard touchdown.

After a terrific performance last week, Gibbs is well-positioned for another big game in this matchup against the 49ers’ defense.

While San Francisco allowed the third-fewest rushing yards during the regular season, this was mostly due to them having such big leads over their opponents, as the underlying metrics don’t support this unit having a stout run defense.

During the regular season, the 49ers’ run defense was 26th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate. Against Green Bay in a very close game, their struggles against the run were on full display, as Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards on just 18 carries, including a 53-yard run.

While Gibbs doesn’t have the same volume as Jones — David Montgomery is the clear lead back in Detroit — the rookie doesn’t need a ton of carries to go over his prop line of just 45.5 rushing yards.

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Gibbs is one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL, with his 16 carries of 15+ yards during the regular season trailing only Christian McCaffrey.

I like Gibbs to surpass his rushing total, but my favorite player prop is for his longest rush to go over 14.5 yards — a line that he has hit in 15 of 19 games this season.

Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush over 14.5 yards (-135 at DraftKings)

Bearman: I said on Twitter/X on Saturday as the Niners snuck by the Packers that it was going to take me less than a second to take the Lions, and that’s exactly what I did.

The Lions might be the new kid on the block, but they have a veteran QB who has won an NFC title and tons of talent across the board. Are the 49ers better? Probably, but they should have lost to the Packers on Saturday night and are fortunate to move on.

The 49ers may very well win the Super Bowl, but I’m gladly taking the points here.

Pick: Lions +7 (+100 at ESPN BET)

Rolfe: The 49ers were far from convincing last week in their 24-21 victory over the Packers. They failed to cover and arguably should have lost. However, it is not uncommon for teams coming off a bye to struggle to impress. Per TruMedia, teams coming off their bye are 60-26 since 2000 but just 40-44-2 against the spread in that same time span.

That is basically what we saw last weekend when the 49ers and Ravens both won, but only the Ravens managed to cover out of the two. When you then step it forward a week, teams who had a bye in Wild Card Weekend are 28-14 straight up when playing at home in Conference Championship Weekend (22-20 ATS).

Additionally, teams coming off a bye who did not cover the week before are 8-4 straight up at home in Conference Championships but just 7-5 ATS.

What this means in terms of picking the game between the 49ers and Lions is not to read too much into the 49ers’ struggles to comprehensively beat the Packers.

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That struggle is not unexpected. The numbers above demonstrate that the team that fails to cover at home in the Divisional Round then wins 66.7% of the time the following weekend. Yet, they only cover 58.3% of the time, while the under hit or pushed in 75% of those games.

What all of this data tells me is that the play here is to tease the 49ers down to the -2 region and the total up to either side of 57 and take the under. Neither team was entirely convincing last weekend, and I would rather take the team with a better depth of talent who is playing at home to win in that situation.

Pick: 49ers -2 and Under 57.5 (-110 on ESPN BET)

Soppe: The Lions are a bottom-12 defense in passer rating and yards per pass.

San Francisco has played five games against similarly porous defenses and won each of those contests by at least 12 points. In the center of the action was Brandon Aiyuk, as he posted a 78.8% catch rate and averaged 118.8 receiving yards in those games (over 110 yards in four of them).

He was an efficient option that also carried a strong upside — he had a 28+ yard catch in each of those wins. There are a variety of ways to use that data (receptions props, touchdown props, etc.), and with Deebo Samuel ailing, I’m not sure there’s a wrong way to do it!

Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 77.5 receiving yards (-110 at ESPN BET)

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