The Las Vegas Raiders finished the 2023 season strong behind interim head coach Antonio Pierce. That gave many in Raider Nation confidence that 2024 would result in a return to the playoffs and perhaps the franchise’s first playoff win since 2002.
But that vision has not materialized, and the Raiders are dangerously close to falling out of the mix entirely, especially after losing to the Dolphins in Week 11. Using Pro Football Network’s playoff predictor, let’s take a look at the latest odds for the Raiders to reach the playoffs.
Can the Las Vegas Raiders Make the Playoffs?
After all the action in Week 11, the Las Vegas Raiders are 2-8 and now have a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 0.0% chance for the 1 seed, a 0.0% chance for the second seed, a 0.0% chance for the third seed, a 0.0% chance for the fourth seed, a 0.0% chance for the fifth seed, a 0.0% chance for the sixth seed, and a 0.1% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Raiders Win the AFC West?
Here’s what the AFC West race looks like after all the Sunday action in Week 11:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have an 89.5% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have a 7.5% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Denver Broncos have a 3.0% chance to win the AFC West.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have a 0.0% chance to win the AFC West.
Current AFC West Standings
- Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
- Denver Broncos (6-5)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)
Raiders’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 11
Can the Raiders win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Las Vegas has a 0.0% chance to win it all.
Raiders’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 12: vs. Denver Broncos
- Week 13: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 14: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 15: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 16: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 17: at New Orleans Saints
- Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
What PFN Predicted for the Raiders vs. Dolphins Matchup
Since Tua Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8, the Miami Dolphins have been a different offense. Miami has scored at least 23 points in all three games since Tua’s return after never hitting that benchmark over their first six games. In addition, the Dolphins are averaging 2.75 points per drive since Week 8, sixth-best in the NFL over that span.
The Raiders rank 28th in defensive dropback success rate, so they could have a tough time slowing down a healthy Miami offense. Even with their struggles throughout the season, the Dolphins are still averaging the eighth-highest yards after the catch per reception. The Raiders rank 20th in average YAC allowed per reception, which could lead to some chunk plays for the Dolphins.
On the other side, Gardner Minshew II will make his eighth start of the season. Minshew ranks 28th in EPA per play (-0.11) and seems to be perpetually on the verge of being benched. Desmond Ridder, who was signed from the Arizona Cardinals practice squad in October, came in relief on Minshew during the team’s last game in Week 9 versus the Cincinnati Bengals.
Another loss would be the Raiders’ sixth straight, which would be their longest within a season since they started 0-10 in 2014.