The Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers open the 2024 season with the latest installment of their legendary AFC West rivalry.
This season-opening chapter has a bit of additional intrigue attached, considering it marks the official start of Antonio Pierce’s tenure as the non-interim head coach of the Silver and Black and Jim Harbaugh’s long-anticipated return to the NFL after nine seasons away at the University of Michigan.
Below is a full breakdown of all NFL betting and fantasy football angles for the Raiders at Chargers season-opening matchup.
Raiders at Chargers Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are correct as of Sept. 7.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
- Moneyline: Raiders +130, Chargers -155
- Total: 40
After hiring Harbaugh this offseason, the Los Angeles Chargers appear to have shifted their identity toward being a smash-mouth, run-first team under their new head coach.
They parted pays with their top two wide receivers from a year ago, and rather than using a top-five pick on either Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze to replace them, they instead drafted OT Joe Alt.
With the addition of Alt, the Chargers beefed up their offensive line, making them a top-10 group, which will help them lean more heavily on the ground game after having the 29th-ranked rushing offense by EPA last season.
A run-first offense means the Chargers should play at a relatively slow pace offensively. Combine that with them facing a Gardner Minshew II-led Las Vegas Raiders offense, I find myself liking the under for the lowest total of the week.
Prediction: Chargers 17, Raiders 13
Pick: Under 40
Raiders at Chargers Schedule, Start Time, and More
- Start time: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Channel: CBS
- Live stream options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, CBS All-Access
- Radio Stations: Raider Nation Radio 920 AM, ALT FM-98.7
- Starting QBs: Gardner Minshew, Justin Herbert
Another divisional matchup in Week 1 sees the Las Vegas Raiders head to SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers. The Raiders’ move to Las Vegas has been interesting. While the venue is fantastic and draws in many fans, the on-field product has not gone quite as planned, especially at head coach.
After going 6-11 in 2023, a 3-5 start doomed Josh McDaniels’ tenure as the Raiders head coach. He was fired and replaced by Pierce, who led the team to a 5-4 finish and eventually was chosen to take over the position permanently. However, the plan for the season is a bit confusing.
The Raiders didn’t want to pay RB Josh Jacobs, who left to sign with Green Bay in free agency. They intend to roll with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison as the duo in the backfield. They still have Davante Adams but are relying on Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker behind him. Finally, instead of rolling with Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas brought in Gardner Minshew II this offseason and plans on going with the veteran over O’Connell.
The defense got quite a boost by signing former Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to a four-year, $110 million contract while resigning DTs John Jenkins and Adam Butler. Wilkins pairs with three-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Maxx Crosby for a solid defensive front. The pressure from the defensive line should free up linebackers Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo to make even more plays for the defense.
While the defense seems to have a strong identity, the offense is still searching for one, especially with Jacobs’ departure. Who will step up to take over the offense, or will it be another season of struggles?
The Chargers also hired a new head coach after firing Brandon Staley after a 5-9 start and losing to the Raiders 63-21 on “Thursday Night Football.” After weeks of speculation, Los Angeles hired Harbaugh to take over head coaching duties in the offseason.
While many believe Harbaugh will be a better leader for QB Justin Herbert, the early preseason results took some time. After two straight losses to start the Harbaugh era with minimal offensive production, the Chargers finally figured things out and beat the Cowboys 26-19 in the final preseason matchup.
However, Herbert’s cast has vastly changed from last season. RB Austin Ekeler went to the Commanders, WR Keenan Allen was traded to the Bears, and Mike Williams signed a one-year contract with the Jets. WRs Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston return for another season, and the Chargers added a few new weapons for Herbert, signing DJ Chark Jr. and drafting Ladd McConkey as the 34th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
As for Ekeler’s replacement, the Chargers became the Ravens of the West Coast, signing both Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins in the offseason to headline the backfield. Kimani Vidal, a 2024 sixth-round pick, and Hassan Haskins, a former Michigan Wolverine, provided depth. Additionally, Los Angeles selected offensive tackle Joe Alt as the fifth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to strengthen a talented offensive line further.
Success under Herbert is long overdue, and the Chargers’ front office hopes Harbaugh is the man for the job. But given the amount of roster turnover, especially on offense, it will be interesting to see how Herbert adjusts to so much sudden change.
Raiders at Chargers Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew II: There might not be a more fun player in the NFL to root for than Minshew, but asking him to lead your fantasy team to glory comes with far more risk than reward.
Don’t get me wrong, Minshew can put fantasy points on the board when unleashed, though this appears to be a conservative offense that will ask him to not be reckless.
Across his 37 career starts, Minshew averaged 17.3 PPG when posting an average depth of throw north of 9 yards, and 15.7 PPG otherwise.
“That’s not that big of a gap, Kyle, and I want to have fun rooting for Minshew.”
I get it, but that gap is bigger than you think.
Last season, 17.3 PPG would have ranked as QB11, less than half a point from moving up two spots. On the other hand, 15.7 PPG would have been QB18, barely ahead of Joshua Dobbs.
Trust me, I like fun, and if Antonio Pierce decides to embrace a YOLO offense, Minshew has the potential to do some damage with two big-play receivers and a uniquely gifted tight end at his disposal. I just view that game plan as a long shot – a very long shot.
Justin Herbert: If you drafted Herbert this summer, it was a bet on his talent with the understanding that you’d have to wait and see what this new-look offense did to maximize his tools.
Nothing has changed. Even in a seemingly strong matchup (though I’m never in a hurry to play a quarterback that could be subject to punishment from Maxx Crosby), you’re best to showcase patience.
It was a bumpy finish to 2023 (one TD pass on 98 pass attempts before his season ended early) and without much in the way of experience surrounding him, why would we assume that Herbert is ready to produce top-15 numbers at a loaded position?
I’m not sure either of these offenses will be in a hurry to snap the ball, potentially making this a low-possession game that nukes the fantasy value of most involved.
Running Backs
Zamir White: I don’t know if you’re ever going to love clicking White’s name into your starting lineup, but I’m also not sure if you’re ever going to fully regret it at the end of the week.
Over the final four weeks of last season, White ranked ninth among running backs in scoring (third in expected points) as the Raiders laid out a blueprint of what they, theoretically, want 2024 to look like.
The volume appears locked in – it’s the upside that’s the question.
Scoring is always going to be difficult, and in a game that might look more like 1994 than 2024, the possession count doesn’t exactly project favorably. White also doesn’t profile as much of a threat in the passing game, especially with two receivers and two tight ends likely to be prioritized ahead of him through the air.
I’m going to have White ranked as a viable Flex play most weeks as a mean ranking – if he scores, I’d bet he finishes inside the top 20. If he doesn’t, White could easily fall out of the top 30.
White’s projectable volume alone has him above committee backs that don’t play for high-flying offenses (I’ll swallow the touch disadvantage with Raheem Mostert or David Montgomery and chase their scoring equity over White).
He might lose that benefit of the doubt as these backfields (namely Washington, Dallas, and Tennessee) sort themselves out, but for now, he’s a low-upside Flex option who is more appealing in formats that de-emphasize pass-catching.
Gus Edwards: The Gus Bus stands to come to a screeching halt now that he is no longer isolated by the Ravens’ offensive scheme, and that reality could be obvious to open the season.
No running back last season scored 20 PPR points against the Raiders without seeing at least five targets, and only one (the great Jonathan Taylor) reached 14 points with at least looks in the passing game.
If pressed, I’d bet the under on 3.5 targets for Edwards.
No, not for this game – for the month of September.
There will be a time and place to try to steal points from a back like this that will rely on cashing in a carry inside the 5-yard line, but taking a risk like that in Week 1 for an offense that underwent an overhaul this offseason is trying too hard.
The Chargers do not have an alpha running back, and that is why Edwards deserves to be rostered. It’s easy to see a world in which he earns plus-volume and handles all of the duties in close.
But with a lack of versatility, Edwards’ PPR upside is significantly capped in this situation. And with every team in action, I’d be shocked if you didn’t have two running backs and 4-5 receivers that I’d rather plug in.
J.K. Dobbins: When this game kicks off, we will be 1,331 days removed from the last time Dobbins played at least 52% of the snaps in an NFL game. The theory behind drafting him late this summer was sound in that it’s cheap exposure to a run-centric offense that lacks backfield depth chart clarity, but you’re very much playing the long game.
As long as Dobbins exits this game healthy, he should very much remain rostered, albeit with the understanding that he’s not a lineup option until we see him carve out a 10+ touch role on a consistent basis.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams: The Raiders’ QB situation might be prohibitive to Adams at some point, but with an entire training camp to implement a game plan and a vulnerable defense on the other side, I don’t expect that to be the case in Week 1.
Last season, the Chargers were a bottom-five defense in YAC. Did you know that Adams paced the league with six touchdown catches on balls thrown less than 5 yards last season?) They were also a bottom-five unit in opponent passer rating and opponent yards per pass attempt.
The Chargers put up little in the way of resistance when it comes to limiting the number of Las Vegas throws directed to its WR1 – Adams had 25 targets across those two meetings. And with Minshew at the helm, there’s even more reason for optimism.
The Mustache has started 37 games across his NFL career, and 31 times has he supported a receiver clearing 15 PPR points. Take it a step further and you’ll notice that, in the majority of those instances, that wideout scored at least 18 points.
This isn’t an anti-Jakobi Meyers take – seven times has Minshew supported a pair of receivers surpassing 15 points. It’s simply supporting an elite talent at full strength in a good spot.
The schedule toughens in short order as the Raiders play the Ravens and Browns this month, and Adams’ ranking will dip with time. But for Week 1, an elite performance is very much a possibility.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers doubled his career touchdown count last season as he turned 106 targets into 71 catches and eight scores. I maintain my belief that he is a good player with a number of ways to threaten defenses, something that could land him on fantasy radars with time. But, like with Minshew, I need to see how this offense functions before committing.
If you want the bull case from a Meyers stan, the Chargers allowed a league-high 41 pass plays to gain 25+ yards last season and saw opponents pick on their secondary from the jump with a league-high 73.8% of their first-quarter yardage allowed being gained through the air.
I wouldn’t call you crazy if you wanted some Meyers DFS exposure, though he’s well off of my starting radar in annual leagues. For now.
Joshua Palmer: Palmer enters the season as my most rostered Chargers receiver, and I have hopes that he can earn valuable targets at a high enough level to get onto Flex radars.
That, however, is going to take time in this Jim Harbaugh system, and it’s why I don’t have any receiver on the Chargers’ roster inside of my top 40 at the position this week, even against a defense that allowed the highest red-zone completion percentage in the league last season (68.7%).
You drafted Palmer with the understanding that it could be a slow burn. Stay patient. There is likely to be a receiver from this offense that pushes for a Fllex-worthy ranking with time, but blindly guessing before we have any data is a good way to lose your matchup.
Ladd McConkey: The rookie comes to the pro game with some NFL-ready traits, and we could see him flex his YAC ability from Day 1.
The Raiders, thanks to the presence of Maxx Crosby, had the lowest opponent average depth of throw in 2023 (6.5, NFL average: 7.7), putting McConkey in position to rack up the receptions and show us what he has.
There’s no reason to plug McConkey in just yet, but this is a good spot to see if his skills translate to the speed of the pro game. It could also serve as an indicator of whether he will be a Flex option by the middle of the season as the Chargers’ target hierarchy comes into focus.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers: I’m fine rostering Bowers and hoping that the raw talent wins out. That said, history tells us that you’re essentially betting on a touchdown if you start the Georgia star in his NFL debut, a shaky bet at best for a team with one of the lower implied totals on the Week 1 slate.
Since 2002, only one time has a tight end scored double-digit PPR fantasy points in his first career game when not finding the end zone. If you’re curious, Coby Fleener was that player, and he had the benefit of playing in an offense led by college teammate Andrew Luck and a game script that required three times as many pass attempts as rushes (the Colts lost 41-21 in Chicago).
Bowers’ preseason usage was encouraging, and there is a path to him mattering this season. But he’s not ranked as a fantasy starter for me this week and likely won’t be for this first month – not until we get a grasp on his role and how this offense is going to function.
Raiders at Chargers Key Stats To Know
Team: The Raiders led the NFL in net yards per punt in 2023 (45.1, NFL average: 41.7).
QB: Gardner Minshew posted the third-worst second-half passer rating in the NFL last season … ahead of only Justin Fields and his current backup, Aidan O’Connell.
Offense: 36.1% of their points for the season came in three games.
Defense: The Raiders allowed a league-low 16 PPG from Weeks 9-18 last season.
Fantasy: Gardner Minshew has started 37 games across his NFL career, and he’s facilitated a receiver clearing 15 PPR points on 31 of those occasions.
Betting: Overs are 12-6 when Minshew starts and is getting at least three points.
AT
Team: Among qualifiers, Gus Edwards gained yardage on a league-best 88.9% of carries last season (he ranked 40th of 49 RBs in percentage of carries that picked up 10+ yards, just 7.6%).
QB: Justin Herbert averaged 7.4 yards per attempt and threw 2.2 TD passes per game through his first two seasons … in the last two years: 6.8 yards per attempt and 1.5 TD passes per game.
Offense: When this game kicks off, we will be 1,331 days removed from the last time Dobbins played at least 52% of the snaps in an NFL game.
Defense: Last season, the Chargers were a bottom-five defense in YAC, opponent passer rating, and opponent yards per pass attempt.
Fantasy: 43.3% of Gus Edwards’ fantasy points last season came on touchdowns.
Betting: The Chargers are the best Week 1 ATS team since 2012 (8-2-2).