On his way to a second MVP award in 2023, Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson posted his best passer rating since 2019 while setting career bests in completion percentage and yards per attempt. He clicked with Todd Monken in the offensive coordinator’s first season with the franchise, and that relationship figures to only grow in the coming years.
Will the addition of Derrick Henry drag down Jackson’s fantasy football stock, or will The King improve the floor of this offense to the point where Jackson could lead the position in fantasy points?
Should I Draft Lamar Jackson in 2024?
Jackson was nothing short of special in 2023. Including the playoffs, he had a 40+ yard completion or a 20+ yard run in 13 of 18 games, often toying with defenses as they weren’t sure what component of his game they wanted to try to slow down.
Lamar Jackson. Movement inside/outside of the pocket vs. SF.
Edge pressure here. Find the underneath outlet. pic.twitter.com/2Sl5EHSwwW
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) December 26, 2023
Jackson was at his best over the final month of the fantasy season, throwing for over 250 yards and multiple touchdowns or rushing for 70+ yards in each of his final four games. For the season, his completion percentage rose 4.9 points from 2022, while his interception count stayed the same despite attempting 129 more passes.
It’s easy to see why managers are tripping over themselves to draft Jackson. He excelled at executing Monken’s offense and will enter this season with an even better understanding of the intricacies.
Jackson succeeded at the highest of levels despite working with a rookie receiver and seeing his star tight end miss more games than the first five years of his career combined. Jackson did all of this with, by all accounts, a league-average running back behind him that defenses weren’t exactly game-planning around.
In theory, all of those potential pitfalls that existed last season won’t be in his way in 2024. Mark Andrews is now at full strength, Zay Flowers has a season of reps under his belt, and Henry was brought in from the Tennessee Titans this offseason to make the most of this Super Bowl window.
While I love the Henry fit for this system as a whole, it’s a big reason why I’m not yet ready to label Jackson as a Tier 1 fantasy QB. We’ve had the same Big Three at the position for a few seasons, and they all share a common trait.
A versatile running back.
James Cook proved plenty fluid in the passing game for Josh Allen, we know Saquon Barkley is as good as it gets coming out of the backfield in support of Jalen Hurts, and Isiah Pacheco made tremendous strides in 2023, giving Patrick Mahomes a safety valve who is more than capable of producing chunk plays.
As good as Henry is, the next season in which he catches 35 passes will be his first. The respect Henry gets from opposing defenses trumps what Gus Edwards got last season, and his presence will open up even more lanes for Jackson. Yet, without that versatile back, I worry about Jackson being able to elevate to that elite level.
In a season in which seemingly everything went right, Jackson averaged fewer fantasy points per game than both Allen and Hurts. I’m not saying he can’t enter that conversation, but I can’t get there in terms of projections.
Instead of drafting Jackson in the fourth round — side-by-side with Mahomes — you’ll find me taking the two-round discount and selecting either C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson.
It may be overthinking things, but with these concerns also comes a weird schedule for the Ravens down the stretch. Not only does Baltimore have a Week 14 bye (potentially a problem depending on the structure of the playoffs in your league), but three of its final four regular-season games come on shorter-than-normal rest.
We can’t predict injury or project around fatigue, but a trend like that in December isn’t going to help, and we’re splitting hairs at the top of the QB board.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insight on Lamar Jackson
Jackson’s upside as the QB1 overall is still very present heading into the upcoming NFL season. He had eight games where he scored more than 25+ fantasy points, which included three performances with 35+ points.
He can still be an explosive fantasy force when his deep ball accuracy is dialed in, and defenses have no solution for Jackson’s elite speed when he decides to tuck the ball away and take off running.
Yet, injury concerns still exist, and the Ravens’ pass-catchers, outside of Andrews and Flowers, are good but not elite.
Jackson’s current ADP of No. 41 overall as the QB4 off the board in the fourth round makes him an appropriately-priced elite fantasy option at QB who has league-winning upside.
Jackson is certainly worth the pick at his current ADP, but he does carry some volatility and durability risk at this premium price.