Los Angeles Rams RB Kyren Williams became one of the greatest waiver wire pickups in fantasy football history last year. Following his overall RB2 finish, Williams’ price in fantasy drafts is far more expensive this year. Should fantasy managers be willing to pay up to roster Williams in 2024?
Should I Draft Kyren Williams in 2024?
In 2023, the Rams’ offense had a fifth-round rookie and fifth-round sophomore post an elite WR1 and elite RB1 season, an unexpected result that came out of nowhere. We will almost certainly never see anything like this again. While Puka Nacua and Williams were similar stories in 2023, that is not the case in 2024.
To be clear, by no means am I suggesting they can’t both repeat what they did last season. They absolutely can. It is definitively within their range of outcomes. The concern is with what history tells us about out-of-nowhere running backs like Williams.
Williams was a waiver wire pickup. Every year, fantasy managers should strive to find guys like Williams off the waivers. They are huge difference-makers and extremely beneficial because of the minimal cost associated with acquiring them.
Williams did not cost a premium draft pick — he just cost you some FAAB. This year, Williams is expensive. He’s got an RB7 ADP, No. 15 overall.
Ironically, Williams actually costs less than his production last year suggests he should. Williams was the overall RB2, averaging 21.2 fantasy points per game. He’s 24 years old on a good offense that has been very conducive to workhorse running backs over the past several years. Why isn’t he being drafted higher?
Whether inherently or overtly, fantasy managers seem to understand that Williams is already an outlier. For him to produce at a level commiserate with his ADP, he needs to continue to be one. In fact, he needs to be the ultimate outlier.
The Williams situation is so fascinating that I dedicated an entire article to it. I spent a lot of time researching The Kyren Williams Conundrum, as I so aptly named it. I encourage you to read my full analysis, but if you want the SparkNotes, here they are:
There have been 17 running backs in the past 15 years to go from waiver-wire pickups to top-24 picks at the position the following season. Of those 17 backs, 0% exceeded expectations, 24% met expectations, 47% fell below expectations, and 29% were complete busts.
Now, to be fair, not a single one of the running backs in our sample performed anywhere near as well as Williams did in his surprise season. Williams’ 21.2 points per game completely lapped the field. You could argue that puts him mostly in a category by himself.
Injury limited Williams to just 12 games last season, but in those 12 games, only CMC was a better fantasy back. Williams averaged an impressive 5.0 yards per carry and scored 15 touchdowns. He was active in the passing game with an 11.5% target share.
In an era where very, very few running backs play all three downs, Williams led the league with an 84% snap share and was fourth with a 78.4% opportunity share. His 21.3 fantasy points per game were good for an overall RB2 finish.
The Rams’ RB depth was about as bad as you could imagine last season. This year, they addressed that by spending a third-round pick on Blake Corum.
I do not think Corum is a serious threat to Williams’ workload. However, Corum could eat a couple of series each game. That would be enough to knock Williams off the elite RB1 ranks. Furthermore, the Rams have little reason to stay loyal to Williams. He’s a former fifth-round pick, so there’s no sunk cost in moving away.
Barring injury, there is a 100% chance Williams opens the season as the starter and the workhorse. However, there is a non-zero chance a Williams injury could open the door for Corum to take his job. It’s not likely, but it’s possible.
The more I think about the prospect of spending a second-round pick on Williams, the more I struggle with the notion of actually doing it.
Given how much better Williams was than similarly situated running backs before him, I still think the most likely outcome is he’s once again a fantasy RB1. However, he does come with more risk than a typical second-round fantasy running back. I have him ranked as my RB9 and likely won’t draft much of him this season.
Should You Draft Williams This Year?
Williams’ ADP at No. 29 overall in the third round as the RB8 off the board right now feels rather appropriate, given the unknown nature of Corum’s impact on this offense.
For some additional context, De’Von Achane, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor are the three backs going ahead of the third-year back. That doesn’t seem unreasonable, but there is a valid argument to be made that Williams could see more total touches than all of these players in 2024.
If you are a believer in Corum, then you are likely going to pass on Williams at this price point. Yet, I can’t help but feel like a player we saw average 5.02 yards per carry last season — which trailed only McCaffrey for backs who saw 200+ carries in 2023 — already showed us how much of an elite producer he can be when on the field in this offense.
Personally, I believe Williams’ fantasy ceiling is in the top three at the position. His floor is a bit uncertain with Corum joining the backfield, but I still expect him to lead this backfield in touches in 2024 — which makes him worth the risk as my RB2 in the third round of fantasy drafts.