After an incredible rookie season, Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts was poised for superstardom. Instead, his production regressed each of the past two seasons. Now saddled with the best QB of his career, can Pitts become the fantasy football TE1 he was always supposed to be in the NFL?
Should You Draft Kyle Pitts in 2024?
Before Sam LaPorta became the greatest rookie TE in fantasy history, there was 2021 Kyle Pitts. As a rookie, Pitts caught 68 passes for 1,026 yards, which is still one of the best debut seasons for a TE in NFL history. Pitts only averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game, but that was because he inexplicably scored just one touchdown.
With natural progression combined with positive touchdown regression, Pitts seemed poised to smash in Year 2. Instead, he was completely unusable in fantasy, averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game. Last year wasn’t much better, with Pitts averaging a paltry 8.1 fantasy points per game.
While Pitts has not produced for two seasons, it’s hard to argue Pitts was merely lucky as a rookie. Players don’t do that unless they are talented. As a result, we have made excuses for Pitts’ struggles the past two seasons and once again project him for a breakout in Year 4.
To be fair, those excuses may very well be justified. Going from Desmond Ridder/Taylor Heinicke to Kirk Cousins is like going from a black-and-white soapbox TV to a 4K LED screen. The upgrade is borderline incalculable. It’s also not the only unquantifiable upgrade for the Falcons TE.
With head coach Arthur Smith at the helm last season, the Falcons ran the ball 51% of the time in a neutral game script. Somehow, they even ran the ball 42% of the time in a negative game script. Smith didn’t really care about the score — the Falcons were going to run the ball no matter what. Shockingly, it didn’t work.
Replacing Smith as head coach is Raheem Morris. But more importantly, Morris’ selection for his offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree. Robinson is likely to funnel this offense through his top playmakers, meaning Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Pitts may see the overwhelming majority of touches in 2024. That’s another check in Pitts’ favor.
There’s no doubt about whether Pitts’ offensive situation will be conducive to his success. We know that it will. The biggest question is whether Pitts’ talent can command the targets. The guy we saw the past two seasons most certainly cannot, but there’s reason to believe that 2024 Kyle Pitts will be different.
The Florida product’s 2022 season ended prematurely due to a knee injury. After the 2023 season, reports surfaced that Pitts hadn’t fully recovered by the time the season started. Essentially, he was playing injured all year. After watching Pitts play, that’s a far better explanation for his poor route running and lack of explosiveness than a 23-year-old mega talent suddenly forgetting how to play football.
Cousins’ arrival has propelled London’s average draft position (ADP) into the middle of the second round as a top-12 receiver. It doesn’t appear to have had the same impact on Pitts. Fantasy managers are still more bullish on Pitts than his performance over the past two years would warrant, making him the TE7. However, his overall ADP is No. 61.
If London is the Falcons’ equivalent of Cooper Kupp — meaning his role, not that he’s going to average 24 points per game (ppg) — then Pitts would be comparable to Robert Woods. As a reminder, prime Woods averaged 15-16 ppg. If Pitts can merely get to 14, he will be well worth his ADP.
At the same time, there is a lot of projection with Pitts, and he unfortunately goes in a range of the draft where I really don’t like to take TEs. I do have him ranked as my TE7, but he remains behind Evan Engram for me, and Engram is going over a round later.
If you are a full believer in Pitts, by no means is he a bad pick. Engram certainly lacks the upside Pitts has. I always endorse swinging for the fences in fantasy drafts. However, the floor does matter. There is an outcome where Pitts just wasn’t as good as we thought and he’s not a viable fantasy TE. Just keep that in mind when deciding whether to push the button on Pitts in the fifth or sixth round.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Analysis for Kyle Pitts
Pitts’ current ADP at No. 60 overall (TE6) suggests the fantasy community is also buying into a big bounce-back year from the Florida product. For some additional context, Pitts is currently going ahead of George Kittle, Brock Bowers, and Evan Engram.
The offseason moves, both on the actual roster and along the Falcons’ coaching staff, rightfully give Pitts’ believers hope entering the 2024 NFL season. Few players ever possess the raw pass-catching prowess, body control, and movement skills at the TE position.
This feels like a make-or-break year for Pitts. Personally, I’d rather wait another round or two later based on the TE depth in 2024. The upside is present enough to warrant this selection — even if it does feel a bit too pricey for my taste.