Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir cleared 100 yards in the regular-season finale last year and scored in both of the team’s playoff games. Entering his third NFL season, Shakir has a great chance to earn consistent targets with both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis moving on this offseason.
Can Shakir make the most of this opportunity and slide into the fantasy football flex conversation in PPR (points per reception) formats?
Khalil Shakir’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
A player can do nothing but impress on the opportunities given. Shakir showcased a nice skill set coming out of Boise State (over six touchdown catches in each of his final three seasons, clearing 1,100 yards in his senior year), but was drafted into a situation where he was going to have a hard time impressing.
At best, he was going to be the fourth option in an offense led by a uniquely gifted and mobile quarterback in Josh Allen. That’s not the profile we are looking for.
But then a light switch flipped on, and that “light” was Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
KHALIL SHAKIR: THE MAGICIAN 🪄 pic.twitter.com/LfGTw58I9P
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) January 16, 2024
In Brady’s first game as OC, Shakir posted his first career 100-yard game. Of course, the majority of that production came via an 81-yard touchdown, but he was in a position to make a play and cashed in.
His production trailed off for the next month before re-emerging as a viable threat in January. Making an impact when the importance of the games ramps up is something we always love to see in projecting forward.
When all was said and done, Shakir’s profile had one major red flag and one major green light, making it a Rorschach test; it’s all a matter of how you look at it.
On one hand, Shakir earned a target on just 13.6% of his routes, a mark that ranked in the Quentin Johnston and Josh Reynolds tier. Those aren’t names you want to be in the same vicinity of for our purposes, and there is certainly work to be done if Shakir is going to take advantage of his increased role in 2024.
With that said, when he did earn a target, Shakir rewarded Allen and Co. in a major way. And by “major,” I mean better than any other player in the sport.
Here is the top of the leaderboard in terms of fantasy points scored over expectation for receivers that saw at least as many looks as Shakir did last season (86 qualifiers):
- Khalil Shakir: +50.7%
- Brandon Aiyuk: +41.3%
- Nico Collins: +36.8%
- Deebo Samuel: +35.2%
Yeah, that’ll work!
I don’t think he’s catching 86.7% of targets (39 of 45) again, but it’s clear that he has the attention of Allen (and Brady) in an offense that is looking to redistribute opportunities.
Everyone is going to rank the Bills’ receiving trio (Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman) in a different order, and I find myself landing on whoever gets taken the latest (typically Shakir).
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I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to fade this uncertain situation altogether; Mike Williams is my most-drafted receiver in the 11th-to-12th-round range.
With that said, I would take the role risk that comes with a Buffalo wideout over a veteran like Tyler Lockett, who is trending in the wrong direction in a less appealing offensive environment.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis for Khalil Shakir
When projecting the Bills wide receivers, there’s not much more to the process than predicting who I think will be the main guy, if anyone.
I wound up going with relatively similar target share projections for all three of Buffalo’s top receivers. Coleman leads the way at 17.3%, but Curtis Samuel is not far behind at 16.6%. I have Shakir third at 13%.
These numbers could fluctuate, but at my current projections, Shakir is catching 39 passes for 547 yards and 4.0 touchdowns. That comes out to 6.99 fantasy points per game, putting him at WR72.
I’m not confident in him emerging into an impact fantasy asset, or even one that’s worth throwing on your bench. A big part of that is there doesn’t project to be enough passing volume to go around.
From Week 11 through the end of last season, the Bills ranked dead last in neutral game script pass rate. What happened before then? Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator.
I have the Bills projected for a 52% pass rate, which may end up being a bit high. Shakir’s WR52 ADP is not particularly high, but I just don’t see the upside here. I have him ranked as my WR54, which isn’t a huge difference this late in drafts.
Nevertheless, it would be surprising if Shakir emerged into an every-week startable WR3/Flex play. As a result, I am taking shots on other players with more upside.