The Buffalo Bills will face the Denver Broncos on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Khalil Shakir.
Is Khalil Shakir Playing vs. the Broncos?
Shakir is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Khalil Shakir on Wild Card Weekend?
My initial thought with this matchup was that I’d be in on Khalil Shakir. The idea that he’d likely be able to avoid Patrick Surtain II while in the slot and that Denver’s second-ranked run defense (by EPA) could force Buffalo to supplement the traditional ground game with short, quick-hitting passes had me intrigued.
Upon further review, the call on the field has been overturned.
The Broncos are the best defense against the slot in terms of touchdown rate and rank third in opponent passer rating when throwing there. Now, they are only average when it comes to completion percentage and yards per attempt, so maybe there is a path for Shakir to pay off his price tag, but I don’t see much in the way of a ceiling for him.
You just read why I’m high on Keon Coleman as a value play this week, and I’m only willing to take on this Denver defense in so many ways. Shakir’s catch rate was what made him a special fantasy asset for the better part of 25 straight weeks, but the road has gotten a little bumpy of late.
- Weeks 1-9: 93.3% catch rate
- Weeks 10-17: 61.8% catch rate
If we can no longer take efficiency as a given, I’m not willing to do the mental gymnastics it takes to roster a player like Shakir in this specific matchup. That’s a shame because I think he’s a solid player who means a lot to a team that should win. Unfortunately, we have to make some tough calls in a six-game slate – leaving him out of my lineups is one of them.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Khalil Shakir’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Sunday, Shakir is projected to score 13.8 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 5.3 receptions for 67.7 yards and 0.3 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Ravens' Defense
The 2023 Ravens led the league in scoring defense but only ranked 10th in Defense+. This year's Ravens fell to ninth in scoring defense but fared better in Defense+.
That improved form held true in the Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. While Baltimore's 75.3 (C) grade was nothing special, that's usually all this offense needs to win. The Ravens were able to exploit Russell Wilson's tendency to hold the ball, averaging their second-highest sack rate (11.8%) of the season.
Since moving Kyle Hamilton to safety in Week 11, the Ravens rank first in points per drive, first in EPA per dropback, first in third-down defense, and first in red-zone defense (including playoffs).
Paired with a run defense that has been elite all season, Baltimore suddenly looks like one of the scariest No. 3 seeds in recent memory. With the offense playing at an elite level led by presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson, Baltimore could be better equipped to make the Super Bowl than last year's team, even without the advantage of the top seed.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Khalil Shakir’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round WR PPR Rankings
1) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs. WAS)
2) Puka Nacua | LAR (at PHI)
3) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. LAR)
4) Nico Collins | HOU (at KC)
5) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at DET)
6) Jameson Williams | DET (vs. WAS)
7) Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. BAL)
8) Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. HOU)
9) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. LAR)
10) Cooper Kupp | LAR (at PHI)
11) Rashod Bateman | BAL (at BUF)
12) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. HOU)
13) Hollywood Brown | KC (vs. HOU)
14) Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. BAL)
15) Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. BAL)
16) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at DET)
17) John Metchie III | HOU (at KC)
18) Dyami Brown | WAS (at DET)
19) Curtis Samuel | BUF (vs. BAL)
20) Demarcus Robinson | LAR (at PHI)
21) Tim Patrick | DET (vs. WAS)
22) Nelson Agholor | BAL (at BUF)
23) Mack Hollins | BUF (vs. BAL)
24) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. HOU)
25) Zay Flowers | BAL (at BUF)
26) Diontae Johnson | HOU (at KC)
27) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. LAR)
28) Tylan Wallace | BAL (at BUF)
29) Xavier Hutchinson | HOU (at KC)
30) Robert Woods | HOU (at KC)
31) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at DET)
32) Tutu Atwell | LAR (at PHI)
33) Justin Watson | KC (vs. HOU)
34) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at DET)
35) Anthony Miller | BAL (at BUF)
36) Jordan Whittington | LAR (at PHI)
37) Kalif Raymond | DET (vs. WAS)
38) Devontez Walker | BAL (at BUF)
39) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. LAR)
40) Xavier Smith | LAR (at PHI)
41) Allen Robinson II | DET (vs. WAS)
Ravens at Bills Trends and Insights
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson was the MVP in 2019. The next season ...
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 179 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Advanced to play a 13-win Bills team
Jackson was the MVP in 2023. This season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 175 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Will play a 13-win Bills team
QB: Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts.
Offense: Over their past five games (all wins), Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 40.8% of their drives (they were one of the elite offenses prior to this run with a 33.3% rate).
Defense: Opponents are 0-of-6 on fourth downs against the Ravens over the past four games (prior: 12-of-23).
Fantasy: On Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns when he was 30+ years of age.
Betting: Baltimore has covered six of eight road games after failing to do so in the season opener at Arrowhead.
Buffalo Bills
Team: All four of Buffalo’s losses this season have come following a blowout result the week prior.
QB: Excluding the one-snap Week 18, Josh Allen is 13-of-16 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on third down over his past two games.
Offense: The Bills have not committed a turnover in six of seven games since their Week 12 bye.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to score a TD on all four of their red zone trips in their Week 4 meeting – they’ve allowed two red zone scores on six trips over their past three games (Denver was 0-of-1).
Fantasy: The Bills didn’t lead for a single second of the first game with the Ravens – James Cook’s production over expectation this season is 16.4% higher when playing from ahead as opposed to behind.
Betting: The Bills have rotated covering with not covering in seven straight games (they covered easily against the Broncos on Sunday).
