Keon Coleman’s fantasy outlook is looking strong following the departure of former Buffalo Bills wide receivers Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. Coleman has already impressed the Bills faithful with his highly entertaining press conferences regarding many topics, but most importantly his Macy’s winter jacket sales.
While fantasy team names for the incoming rookie from Florida State are in short supply off the top of my head, I don’t expect to be saying the same for his production as he enters the 2024 season as the Bills’ likely No. 1 target in an offense with Josh Allen throwing him the ball.
Below, I’ll aim to project what to expect from the rookie in an offense that was once heralded as one of the best in the league.
Keon Coleman’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
A fantasy football strategy I like to use is ensuring I walk away with some rookies.
In 2023, two wide receivers finished inside the top 21 at the position in PPR leagues, and three were inside the top 25 — Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice, and Zay Flowers.
Now more than ever, a few rookies are hitting the field and instantly becoming productive, and Coleman could very well be one of those, especially considering his modest ADP of WR53 and No. 128 overall.
The Bills have a later bye week in Week 12, and during fantasy playoffs, typically Weeks 15-17, Coleman will play the Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, and New York Jets.
The Jets are always a tough matchup, but the Lions and Patriots allowed 22 and 14 receiving touchdowns last season, respectively.
Is Coleman a Good Fantasy Pick?
Given his ADP, Coleman is certainly a great pick to make.
Coleman was the Bills first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft at No. 33 overall. He’s on a wide receiver depth chart with Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Chase Claypool, Mack Hollins, and other players who have floated around the NFL for quite some time.
Shakir will play out of the slot, while Coleman will be the go-to outside receiver. Tight end Dalton Kincaid will also receive looks.
The Bills could also run more in 2024 with James Cook and this depleted receiving corp, but Coleman provides Allen with a much-needed deep threat.
In 2023 with Florida State, Coleman dealt with some major quarterback play issues (Jordan Travis was the starter, and after he got hurt, Tate Rodemaker took over).
He was targeted 20+ yards downfield on 27.5% of his targets. He caught eight of the 22 for 257 yards and four touchdowns.
This accounted for 17.4% of his receptions, 40.2% of his yards, and 36.36% of his touchdown catches.
As for Allen, he threw 20+ yards downfield on 13.1% of his attempts, completing 28 of 76 passes for 933 yards and seven touchdowns.
According to Pro Football Focus, the top wide receivers targeted on passes 20+ yards downfield last season included Davis (25), Diggs (24), Shakir (six), and Deonte Harty (five). Of those players, only Shakir remains, and 13.3% of his targets qualified for this.
Look for Coleman to get ample deep shots and provide a lot of fantasy value with a collection of big performances that’ll at least make him an exciting flex play every week.