Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III has flirted with 1,200 scrimmage yards in each of his first two NFL seasons, and his 18 touchdowns have allowed him to be a strong option across all fantasy football formats.
That said, there is hope that he can take a step forward and offer his best season to date. Should you be willing to pay for Walker’s services in 2024?
Should You Select Kenneth Walker III at His Current ADP?
ADP: 44th Overall (RB17)
Drafting Walker is a matter of expectations. If you’re taking him in the late fourth/early stages of the fifth round as your RB2 and expecting stable production, you have the green light. If you’re jumping the line and hoping for a Year 3 breakout, you’re more optimistic than I am.
Zach Charbonnet showed just fine when given the opportunity as a rookie (4.3 ypc with an 82.5% catch rate) and figures to see his role grow in his second season.
That’s not to say that Walker can’t produce in the same range he did last season. But expecting him to ascend past a player like James Cook, who sits just ahead of him in ADP, isn’t the percentage play.
That said, I do like this spot on the draft board. Walker’s young legs have more potential than veterans like Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones, who are going a handful of picks later.
Walker’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Walker has offered two nearly identical seasons thus far — and there’s nothing wrong with that. As a rookie, he turned 255 touches into 1,215 yards with nine touchdowns, and, as an encore in 2023, he churned out 1,164 yards and nine scores on 248 touches.
There were concerns that the Seahawks’ use of the 52nd overall pick on Charbonnet a year ago would cut into Walker’s role. While it may have stunted his growth into a full-blown workhorse, it didn’t negatively impact Walker’s bottom line.
The concern when it comes to entering a fantasy season with Walker penciled in as your RB1 is that lack of work in the passing game and a decline in his rushing efficiency. In 30 career games, he has 56 catches, a level of versatility that trails most of the top backs (eight games with single-digit receiving yards in 2023).
There were a few chunk plays as a pass catcher (three grabs that gained over 25 yards, with a 64-yard score being the highlight), which helps fuel optimism that Walker’s role can expand. But we’ve yet to see the type of volume that would suggest that the franchise is trending in that direction.
There goes Kenneth Walker for 64 yards and the @Seahawks take the lead!
📺: #WASvsSEA on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kECSNGc6Bj pic.twitter.com/POveJqje0S— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2023
As for him as a runner, Walker’s yards per carry after contact dipped by 21.1% last season, and that stands to be a concern if the target volume isn’t going to increase. His last 30-yard carry came in October, a skill set that would require elite volume to pay off if his price tag is sustained.
We saw the Seahawks lean heavily on K9 in certain situations last season, especially early in the year, but not consistently enough for us to assume that he ranks among the very best in workload.
There’s potential in this profile, and if you think Seattle’s offense as a whole can rebound back to 2022 levels, there’s room for profit. But without a Geno Smith bounce-back, the scoring environment is more suited for a plateau season than one of substantial development.