Los Angeles Chargers Keenan Allen was on a career catch pace last season before an injury derailed him. The veteran receiver has stiff target competition, and there are some concerns about what the shift to a Kellen Moore offensive structure looks like for Allen, worries that have lowered his fantasy football ADP this summer. Are they valid or an overreaction?
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Keenan Allen’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
Some teams entering 2023 will completely overhaul rosters, while others look largely the same. The Chargers are very much the latter, though a coaching change could adjust the fantasy value of a few of their star players.
Moore and his aggressive approach take over the controls of an offense that, despite having a promising QB in Justin Herbert, ranked 31st in average depth of throw last season.
Part of that was limited health to their top two receivers (Mike Williams and Allen combined to miss 11 games), and part was due to the pass-catching prowess of Austin Ekeler, so it’ll be interesting to see just how different this offense operates in Year 1 of the Moore era.
Added to this depth chart was the big body of Quentin Johnston out of TCU. He enters the league as a bona fide field-stretcher (17.8 yards per catch last season), seemingly a perfect fit for how Moore wants to design this offense. Who his targets will come at the expense of is something managers must wrestle with this draft season as they line up their cheat sheets.
Is Allen a Good Fantasy Pick?
I’m actively targeting him in drafts this summer and not apologizing!
Keenan Allen says they watch film of the Cowboys offense everyday, and that under Kellen Moore he will be playing the CeeDee Lamb role 😳 pic.twitter.com/A6xqmALHQy
— RosterWatch (@RosterWatch)
Johnston’s frame and route tree are a great fit for Moore’s playbook, but I think the majority of his value comes at the expense of the other huge receiver in this offense — Williams — and not the precise route running of Allen.
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The shift to Moore’s offensive scheme has me projecting a decline in targets for Allen — that much I will concede. But the value of each target should increase by enough to offset that, making him a strong option at this point in the draft.
It hurts my soul when I leave a draft without some exposure to the Chargers, and Allen is my favorite way of preventing sadness.
- PFN Consensus: 36th overall
- ADP: 39th overall
