In my younger days, there were more players I disliked than I liked. While I’ve since learned that everyone has a price, there are still players in fantasy football drafts who are going much higher than I’d be willing to take them.
Unless these players fall multiple rounds below ADP, they belong on the “do not draft” list.
Which Fantasy Football Options Should You Have on Your Do Not Draft List?
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (ADP: QB5)
What? C.J. Stroud? That’s blasphemy!
I know. I know. And I’ve also gone on record saying I think Stroud is going to have a monster year to the tune of 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. The problem is that’s what he needs to do just to compete with the rushing quarterbacks.
This isn’t the NFL of 10 years ago. The overall QB1 used to average around 20 fantasy points per game. Some years, way back in the day, no QB got to 20 ppg. Now, 20 ppg can be a back-end QB1.
The example I always point to is 2021 Matthew Stafford. That was the year Cooper Kupp broke every record.
That season, Stafford was an absolute monster. He threw for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns — basically what I think Stroud will do this season. Stafford finished as the overall QB11.
For Stroud to live up to his ADP, he not only has to push 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns, but he also needs the other QB1s to stumble a bit. He would need 20-21 ppg to be top five at the position. There’s no realistic path for him to get to 24 ppg.
As great of a quarterback as Stroud is, he’s going too early. While it’s probably harsh to call him a bust, he’s almost certainly overvalued as an early fifth-round pick.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears (ADP: RB21)
This isn’t a high-confidence bust call. I just can’t shake the feeling that something isn’t right with D’Andre Swift.
Twice in the past two seasons, an NFL team decided they did not want Swift. For a guy who seemed so talented over his first two years in the league, it just feels like there’s something behind the scenes that we, as lowly fantasy managers watching this game, are not privy to.
Aside from these unprovable feelings, there’s also tangible data.
Let’s take Swift’s 2023 season. He ran behind a very good Eagles offensive line. He handled a career-high 229 carries. He ran for over 1,000 yards. Yet, he only averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game.
The Bears look like they are going to have a really good offense. But is it actually a better offensive environment for Swift? This projects to be a pass-first offense, and I’m not entirely sure Swift will be the Bears’ receiving back. He only saw a 10% target share last season.
Furthermore, even if Swift is the receiving back, that would make it less likely he’s the goal line back. We may get receptions. We may get touchdown opportunities. But we probably won’t get both.
Most importantly — and perhaps I am reading too much into it — is what the preseason has looked like.
The Bears played their starters plenty in the preseason. Khalil Herbert was getting a whole lot of burn with the starters. Swift is not going to be more than a 50% guy … and that’s assuming Roschon Johnson doesn’t have a regular role.
This could be something like a 45-35-20 split, which would be a nightmare for fantasy.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: WR10)
Before you jump through the computer screen to attack me, please know two things.
First, I don’t think Davante Adams is done. Is he as good as he was in Green Bay? No. But is he 2021 Allen Robinson? Also no.
Second, you’re not going to lose your league if you draft Adams.
I don’t think Adams’ floor is the aforementioned 2021 A-Rob. Based on his name appearing on this, I obviously think he will underperform relative to his ADP. However, he won’t be a total landmine.
The primary reason for fading Adams is the Raiders’ offense. At the same time, let’s not pretend he hasn’t shown signs of decline.
Success against man coverage is very predictive of a player’s ability. We use it with young players who have yet to really ascend as signs of an imminent breakout. We can also use it to see how older players are aging.
Adams’ decline does appear to be gradual. His 2023 open score wasn’t “bad” — it just wasn’t at the level we expect from one of the best wide receivers of all time. Even if we assume further decline this season, it’s unlikely to be precipitous.
So, we have a player who is still good but not super elite anymore. Adams went from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo to now Gardner Minshew.
Do we expect the Raiders to have a good offense this year?
Last season, Adams was the only wide receiver who finished in the top 24 in fantasy points per game and played on an offense that ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring.
Now another year older, banking on Adams being the sole outlier again if the Raiders don’t improve as a team is not a bet I want to make with him going in the second round of drafts.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: WR28)
A WR28 price tag isn’t unreasonable for an NFL team’s WR1. I just struggle to see the upside with George Pickens.
Well, I shouldn’t say I struggle to see it — I do see it.
Pickens is a talented player. We’ve seen him post mega-elite games, such as his 35.5-point effort in Week 16 last season. He’s capable, but so was Drake London, a player who I think is more talented than Pickens.
London finished outside the top 40 wide receivers in his two seasons with the Atlanta Falcons, playing in an Arthur Smith offense. Yes, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are much better than Desmond Ridder, but the concerns are the same. Where is the volume coming from?
Pickens will benefit from Diontae Johnson being gone. He’s the clear WR1 with minimal target competition. But, again, so was London, and Smith couldn’t figure out how to use him.
I fear Pickens is destined for a similar fate. As my WR38, I’m out on Pickens this season.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (ADP: TE16)
Cole Kmet’s ADP has been steadily dropping since the preseason began. However, it hasn’t fallen far enough.
In fact, I’m not sure it can fall far enough. There is no round where I would take Kmet this season.
New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron used multiple tight ends during his time in Seattle. He’s brought that philosophy over to Chicago.
During the preseason, Kmet wasn’t even the primary TE with the starters. He split with Gerald Everett, with the latter seeing slightly more action.
Shane Waldron was the OC in Seattle for 3 seasons
His highest snap share for a TE by year:
Gerald Everett 64% (2021)
Noah Fant 60% (2022)
Noah Fant 54% (2023)Each szn, a 2nd TE played at *least* 47% snaps pic.twitter.com/XxsRze8GQ9
— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) August 26, 2024
Kmet averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game last season on a 19.3% target share. It’s impossible to project him to get close to that percentage again now that the offense added Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, and the aforementioned Everett.
Even if we ignore Kmet’s price in fantasy drafts, what value is there in the fifth or sixth option in any team’s passing game, let alone one with a rookie quarterback?
I still see some fantasy managers taking Kmet as a desperation TE1 in situations where they’ve punted the position.
Kmet should go undrafted. There are many other tight ends with much higher ceilings to go with.