Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds: What Are the Chances Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Win Super Bowl 58?

Up next: the 2023 NFL season. Let's assess how bullish we should be about the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs' Super Bowl 58 odds.

Calling all bettors! The Kansas City Chiefs cannot be stopped. Or can they? As we look to free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft, will they enter next season as the deserved favorites to repeat as champions? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl 58 Odds

Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader better market.

For example, the Chiefs were the top favorite (+650 odds) of winning this year’s Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were No. 2. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.

But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were No.’s 3 and 4, respectively — though in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed. The Philadelphia Eagles weren’t even in the top third.

MORE: 2023 NFL Free Agency Predictions 

Painfully, I ignored the signs — or rather, identified different signs — and advised bettors to fade the Chiefs in 2022. Yes, I know. Even my kids won’t speak to me.

So when I see KC is the frontrunner to win Super Bowl 58 with +600 odds, how can I possibly sidestep them again? Well, the contrarian in me feels compelled to at least present the case for why the Chiefs surprised me and a couple other people in 2022, and how this might impact bettors’ decisions in 2023.

2022 Season Takeaways

Heading into last season, I believed Kansas City’s receiving corps would take a step back without Tyreek Hill, while their running game would be stuck in neutral at best behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Additionally, I was wary of their seemingly tough schedule, which included six games vs. a largely revamped AFC West that now included eight receivers with at least one 1,000+ yard season. Davante Adams was supposed to help elevate the Raiders, and he did. The problem is that he and Josh Jacobs couldn’t do it alone.

Russell Wilson was supposed to be the missing piece for a Denver franchise poised to return to the postseason. Wilson frequently struggled, Javonte Williams was lost for the season in September, and the rest is history.

And the Chargers? Well, on paper, they remained great. But a litany of offensive and defensive injuries — including a rib injury to Justin Herbert that hampered him for multiple games — kept them out of the AFC’s upper tier.

Shockingly, but not so shockingly, given what we now know, the Chiefs went 6-0 vs. their divisional opponents. Yet, four of those wins were by three points or less. They needed overtime to skate past the Titans and lowly Texans.

They also benefited from seventh-round rookie breakout Isiah Pacheco, as well as midseason acquisition Kadarius Toney, who became one of the most quarterback-friendly wideouts in the league (Patrick Mahomes had a 147.8 QB rating when targeting him).

MORE: List of Super Bowl Appearances by Team

Every team, no matter how great, gets good bounces and bad bounces. And some teams earn many of their good bounces. No doubt, the Chiefs were exceptional closers, frequently claiming victory after being on the verge of defeat. Well deserved, and the sign of a strong franchise built to continue competing for titles.

My big question heading into 2023 is not whether KC can win another Super Bowl (of course they can). The question is whether their +600 odds are favorable enough to dive in. Presumably, yes. But it’s not a confident “yes.”

2023 Offseason Moves

What will the Chiefs’ receiving corps look like in Week 1? Can Isiah Pacheco be a high-volume bell cow, or will he need a complementary back — either the underperforming Clyde Edwards-Helaire or aging Jerick McKinnon … or someone else?

Even in victory, the Chiefs remain a team in transition. How they approach free agency and the draft could prompt shifts in their Super Bowl 58 odds.

NFL Free Agency

In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on key Chiefs arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to win it all.

NFL Draft

In early May, we’ll update this section on key Chiefs draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any instant-impact players who could help catapult them to league-frontrunner status.

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