The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chiefs skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
Daniel Jones and Caleb Williams are a part of the long list of QBs this season with multiple top-10 finishes in 2024.
That list doesn’t include Patrick Mahomes.
I think he has a chance to join it this week if for no other reason than it might be the rare instance where that is what is asked of him. Mahomes has struggled to be a consistent fantasy asset this season, not because the aliens from Space Jam stole his talent, but because the undefeated Chiefs don’t need him to put up big numbers the way Buffalo needs Josh Allen to.
I like his usage potential in this spot against a defense that asks you to take your medicine with short passes, something Mahomes has been doing in volume for the past few seasons. That said, we have to also include the idea that Buffalo dictates the tempo and makes this a low-possession game.
Mahomes is my QB14 this week. If it looks like we are getting a low ownership situation in DFS tournaments, I might get there as a bet on talent.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
The Chiefs have been projecting a late November return for Isiah Pacheco and that means now is the time to try to acquire him in the trade markets if the team holding him is in desperate need of victories.
I find it unlikely that Pacheco assumes an elite workload immediately upon his return (Kansas City’s record gives them a luxury with their RB1 that San Francisco didn’t have) and that buys Kareem Hunt managers a few more weeks of viability.
Stay close to the reporting, but I’m tentatively expecting a Week 13 return to fantasy lineups. He is unlikely to play this week and with the Panthers on deck for Week 12, the team figures to be cautious with a player they want to peak in January as opposed to risk in November.
Week 13 is not only a good matchup (vs. Raiders), but it comes on a Friday, giving Pacheco additional time to recover before a Week 14 showdown with the Chargers.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Let’s call it what it is — Kareem Hunt is a volume play. That may not sound like a glowing endorsement and, long term, it’s not. But for the short term, there’s no reason to jump off of the Hunt Express. That’s now five straight games with over 20 touches, a role that is near impossible to find and lands him inside the top 20 of my rankings regardless of matchup.
Do I think his 10 targets from last week are sticky? Not even close, he had a total of eight looks prior, but it was good to see. More important than the volume of looks was from where they came — four were in the red zone. The Bills are the 11th-best EPA rush defense in the league, but with a league-low aDOT, what we saw last week gives me hope that, even if inefficient, Hunt can give us viable numbers in the game of the week.
Moving off of Hunt for any piece that is a Flex option for the rest of the season would be my play with Isiah Pacheco trending toward his return. But with that information well-known and your league mates unlikely to part with an impactful piece for a rental, I’m planning on riding out this production for as long as I can.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
DeAndre Hopkins was the star of Week 9 with the Monday night breakthrough performance against the Buccaneers (8-86-2), but his production in Week 10 left fantasy managers wanting more (4-56-0). He earned a 16.7% on-field target share against the Broncos, his lowest since joining the Chiefs, but not every team has a Pat Surtain II on the roster.
Even in a tough game, Hopkins was the target of an end-zone pass, and I’ll take my chances any time that is the case. This is a low-octane offense that will struggle to hit ceilings like it did in Week 9, but the usage generally has been fine for Hopkins, and that’s enough for me to consider him a viable WR2 most weeks.
Buffalo is a strong defense against perimeter receivers, and that could put a bit of a cap on Hopkins. However, they are allowing the eighth-highest red-zone completion percentage (62%; NFL average: 55.5%), and that gives K.C.’s WR1 the potential to bail you out if needed.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
JuJu Smith-Schuster was unable to practice at all last week and has now been sidelined since Week 7 with, you guessed it, a hamstring injury. We saw one good game from the slot receiver (7-130-0 against the Saints over a month ago) and got excited about what he could be in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, but those days are behind us.
Not only has DeAndre Hopkins shown comfort, but Isiah Pacheco is due back sooner than later, leaving a low-volume role at best for a banged-up receiver who hasn’t produced viable fantasy numbers in 1.5 years. If you’re holding onto Smith-Schuster as a way to be tied to this Kansas City offense, you can pretty safely stop doing so across all formats.
Xavier Worthy, WR
I understand that we seemingly see one splash play opportunity for Xavier Worthy weekly, but can we be done now?
Patrick Mahomes’ average depth of throw continues to move closer to the line of scrimmage, and it’s become clear that making the most of limited opportunities isn’t Worthy’s path to viability (11 yards on six targets over the past two weeks). He was targeted on two of Kansas City’s first four passes last week against the Broncos, a sign that they want to get him involved.
But we already knew that. We knew that when they drafted him 28th overall. The fact that he could only earn two targets the rest of the way is the most recent set of proof that we have been handed that he’s simply not ready to earn consistent looks at this level.
I’m going to keep ranking him outside of my top 50 at the position and feel good about it. Am I going to be wrong eventually? Yep. Does anyone know when that will be? Nope, and that is why I’m not comfortable playing him.
Travis Kelce, TE
Travis Kelce has seen at least a dozen targets in three straight games, the first player 35 or older to do that since Terrell Owens in 2010 (five straight). The usage was no mistake — Kelce caught a two-yard score at the end of the first half and was responsible for six of Patrick Mahomes’ first 16 completions.
This Chiefs team defies logic across the board, and Kelce is a part of that. We were ready to write him off for the regular season, but this offense is built around Mahomes’ ability to move the chains. That style, given the roster as it sits, means that Kelce is a threat to lead the position in opportunities every single week.
We are looking at a Tier 1 tight end. Maybe he’s not a tier unto himself like years past, but Father Time is taking his time in knocking on Kelce’s door. I see no reason to bet against that moving forward for the remainder of this season.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Trends
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: The Chiefs have won nine straight games when trailing in the second half.
QB: Among 32 qualifiers, Patrick Mahomes ranks 19th in yards per pass, 23rd in interception rate, and 32nd in average depth of throw.
Offense: Kansas City leads the league in third down conversion rate (52%).
Defense: The win on Sunday was nice to get, but the Chiefs created pressure on just 21.2% of dropbacks, their lowest rate of the season despite a 42.4% blitz rate (their second-highest mark of 2024).
Fantasy: Travis Kelce has seen at least a dozen targets in three straight games, the first player aged 35 or older to do that since Terrell Owens in 2010 (five straight).
Betting: The Chiefs are 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven road games.
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills have won five straight games and just scored 50 points in their most recent game. Heading into their playoff loss to the Chiefs last season, they had won six straight games and scored 48 points in their most recent game.
QB: The Bills opened the season 3-0, and Josh Allen completed 75% of his passes. Since, he’s completed just 59.9% of his passes (four interceptions over his past three games).
Offense: That’s now five straight weeks of improvement when it comes to limiting pressure when not blitzed for this offensive line.
Defense: Buffalo has allowed the opposition to convert no more than 37.5% of their third downs in four of their past five games.
Fantasy: James Cook has twice as many rushing touchdowns this season (128 carries) as he did in his first two seasons (326 carries).
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in seven straight Buffalo home games (4-0 this season with three of those games going over the number by at least 7.5 points).