If you’re planning to make prop bets or any other wagers on season-long NFL player production, here are our suggested bets for some of the Kansas City Chiefs’ key playmakers. All prop bets are based on FanDuel over/unders, featuring Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Top Kansas City Chiefs prop bets for 2022
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on 10 years of NFL research analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these assessments.
Mahomes is a fascinating player to bet on because it’s unclear whether, at nearly 27 years old, he’s already peaked, or if the best is yet to come. His 2018 breakout at age 23 suggested he might be the best NFL quarterback for years. Instead, he’s been merely “great,” despite throwing to the game’s top tight end (Travis Kelce) and one of the best wideouts (Tyreek Hill).
Aside from Kelce and Mecole Hardman, Mahomes’ top receivers this season are new faces — all of them young and/or in their prime. For the first time since Mahomes’ 2018 campaign, there are more unknowns than knowns. How will he gel with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling? Can rookie Skyy Moore become a weekly asset?
While Mahomes might not be a top-three QB statistically this season, his over/under props suggest he’ll struggle to keep pace with recent years’ production levels. I’m more bullish about his outlook and am recommending the following prop bets for the regular season.
Passing yards: Over 4,500.5
Passing TDs: Over 34.5
Interceptions: Under 10.5
Kelce’s historic run as the No. 1 fantasy TE ended last year at the hands of Mark Andrews. Nevertheless, he remains the consensus preseason No. 1 fantasy TE. The fantasy and betting markets see last year’s modest regression as a blip, rather than the start of a potentially steep decline.
No doubt, Kelce remains a key cog in the Chiefs’ passing attack. At the same time, we have to wonder if the offense will continue to run through him.
Last year was the first time he didn’t lead this team in targets and receptions since 2015, back when teammate Jeremy Maclin was near-elite. This year’s Chiefs have the makings of a more spread-it-around offense, with the goal of keeping the 32-year-old Kelce healthy for another postseason run. As a result, I recommend the under in two top categories this coming regular season.
Receiving yards: Under 1,050.5
Receiving TDs: Under 8.5
Since getting drafted at the end of the first round in 2020, Clyde Edwards-Helaire had almost nowhere to go but down. His career began with lofty expectations, thanks to starting in an elite NFL offense. But after missing 10 games in his first two seasons, and also losing significant touches — including in the red zone — to surprising 2021 breakout RB Darrel Williams, many prognosticators and bettors have lost faith in this once “can’t miss” prospect.
For a while this summer, I agreed with this assessment. But in a backfield with more questions than answers — thanks in part to an underwhelming preseason from offseason signee Ronald Jones — CEH has a clear opening to regain his footing as the No. 1 RB.
Remember, Edwards-Helaire is still only 23 years old. While he remains a higher-than-normal injury risk, CEH should continue to command 12+ touches a game, which should result in a return to 2020 form — or better.
Rushing yards: Over 650.5
Rushing TDs: Over 4.5