Did the Chiefs Make Their Luck or Did They Get Lucky? One Expert Weighs In

The Kansas City Chiefs battled through adversity and won another Super Bowl this season, but one data point believes they benefited from a lot of luck.

When it comes to winning the Super Bowl, it often gets talked about all the factors that go into doing so. First, you need to have the talent, followed by getting hot at the right time, and thirdly, maybe a little bit of luck along the way as well.

For the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s clear the first two are true, while data suggests they may have had luck on their side as well.

Chiefs Are Luckiest Team in Recent Postseason History

Acknowledging luck as a factor does not in any way diminish a body of work. But to deny its impact on the game or season is disingenuous as well.

The Chiefs earned this Super Bowl title and did so by being the best team in football when it counted. However, according to Tom Bliss, a Senior Manager of Football Operations for the NFL, luck was on Kansas City’s side.

According to Bliss, the 2023 Chiefs had the most win probability added via luck of any playoff team dating back to 2018.

Games and moments he mentioned as an example were two specific moments during the Buffalo Bills playoff game, with the largest swing of luck being the Bills’ missed field goal with 1:47 left in the game, which added an 18.7% win probability for them.

That was preceded by a dropped 54-yard pass by Buffalo WR Stefon Diggs with 8:23 left in the game, resulting in an 18.3% win-probability swing in Kansas City’s favor.

The third moment Bliss mentioned comes in Super Bowl 58 when the San Francisco 49ers muffed the punt with 2:42 left in the third quarter, resulting in a 15.6% increase in win probability. The Chiefs scored a touchdown on the very next play.

It’s clear that luck in these moments played a huge factor in the outcomes of their games. The combination of capitalizing on the moment and maybe a bit of the right place and right time, the Chiefs were beneficiaries of one of the luckiest runs in recent NFL history.

MORE: Would Another Super Bowl Make the Chiefs the Greatest Dynasty Ever?

Every year, and even in every game, some moments change the course of an outcome, with some being on the lucky side, while others are on the unlucky side of the action.

In the Chiefs’ case in 2023, they found a way to take advantage of every advantageous bounce that came their way. And when the game was on the line, they created their luck by scoring a game-winning touchdown from Patrick Mahomes to Mecole Hardman in the right side of the end zone.

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