Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview and Predictions: 5 Stats That Could Decide the Game

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow returns to one of the league’s top rivalries for a fifth head-to-head matchup with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Burrow missed Kansas City’s Week 17 win last year after having season-ending surgery, and he’s riding a three-game losing streak in games he’s started.

Burrow and the Bengals also have lost three season openers in a row, and if they don’t get things straight Sunday, they’ll be staring at a three-game losing streak to the Chiefs.

Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes Renew Rivalry As Chiefs, Bengals Meet Again

Look for CBS to have a camera dedicated to zoomed-in shots of Burrow’s wrist as questions linger about how close it is to full strength, even though he’s said it does not limit him in any way.

The Bengals won’t have Tee Higgins to line up opposite Ja’Marr Chase, but they should have a much better-conditioned and stronger Chase after dealing with his late return to practice and bout with food poisoning prior to the New England game.

Higgins is listed as doubtful, so receivers Andrei Iosvias, Charlie Jones, and Trenton Irwin, along with tight end Mike Gesicki, should see more targets.

Burrow and Mahomes are the names on the marquee, but this is more going to be Burrow vs. Chris Jones, as the Cincinnati offensive line has to figure out a way to keep the All-Pro defensive tackle from wrecking the game.

The Bengals are quietly seething about another 0-1 start after a mistake-filled opener and four three-and-outs in their limited eight possessions in Week 1.

Here are five key stats courtesy of TruMedia that could be key in determining the winner, along with our PFN staff predictions:

Stat: Joe Burrow is 3-1 against Patrick Mahomes and can move into a tie for an NFL record with a win on Sunday.

Analysis: There are five quarterbacks who have won at least three Super Bowl championships as a starter – Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, Tom Brady and Mahomes.

Burrow is one of only nine quarterbacks who can boast a winning record in at least four starts against a three-time champion.

And if Burrow and the Bengals can pull off the upset Sunday, he will be tied for the best winning percentage against a three-time champion in league history.

Here are the nine quarterbacks who have a winning record as a starter against a three-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback, per Pro Football Reference.

• Kerry Collins, 4-1 (.800) vs. Troy Aikman
• Joe Burrow, 3-1 (.750) vs. Patrick Mahomes
• Vince Ferragamo, 5-2 (.714) vs. Joe Montana
• Randall Cunningham, 7-4 (.636) vs. Troy Aikman
• Drew Brees, 5-3 (.625) vs. Tom Brady
• Eli Manning, 3-2 (.600) vs. Tom Brady
• Phil Simms, 4-3 (.571) vs. Troy Aikman
• Mark Rypien, 5-4 (.556) vs. Troy Aikman
• Ken Stabler, 7-6 (.538) vs. Terry Bradshaw

Stat: Over their past seven games, the Chiefs have converted just 38.5% of their red zone trips into touchdowns (25 games prior: 63.8%).

Analysis: The Bengals did a good job against the Chiefs in Week 17, holding them to one touchdown in three red-zone trips. But Harrison Butker made up for a bunch of stalled drives by hitting six field goals.

In the four Bengals-Chiefs meetings prior to that one, Kansas City scored touchdowns on 11 of 16 red-zone trips (68.8%).

Tackling was an issue last week – 14 missed ones, a six-year high – and improvement is going to be mandatory against the Chiefs, especially in the red zone.

Offensively in the recent five-game stretch, the Cincinnati offense is just 7 of 14 (50%) in the red zone.

Stat: The Bengals had the sixth-best penalty differential last season (-0.9), while the Chiefs ranked 30th at 1.4.

Analysis: This is going to upset the “Chiefs get all the calls” crowd out there.

And it’s not just 2023. Since 2019, when Zac Taylor arrived in Cincinnati and Patrick Mahomes won his first Super Bowl with Kansas City, the Bengals lead the league in penalty differential (-1.5), while the Chiefs are 18th (+.07).

Cincinnati also leads the league in terms of the fewest total penalties with 405. The Los Angeles Rams are a distant second with 430, and the Chiefs are 20th (506).

The Bengals appear to be continuing their disciplined trend, drawing on only two accepted penalties in their season-opening loss to the Patriots.

Alex Kemp will be the referee on Sunday. His crew averaged the sixth most flags in 2023 (14.39)

Kemp’s home-road differential was the second largest, with road teams drawing an average of 1.28 more flags per game than home teams.

Stat: The Bengals are 15-3 against the spread underdogs of at least 3 points and Joe Burrow starts. The Chiefs are 6-point favorites on Sunday.

Analysis: Among quarterbacks with at least 10 starts since 2020 – Burrow’s rookie year – his .833 cover percentage is by far the highest in the league.

Drew Lock is a distant second by nearly 10 percentage points (.688), followed by Jared Goff (.667), Kyler Murray (.636), and Josh Dobbs (.615).

In terms of outright victories as an underdog of 3+ points, Burrow is 9-8-1 for a .528 winning percentage that ranks second behind only Ryan Tannehill (13-10, .565).

The only other quarterbacks above .400 are Ben Roethlisberger (5-6, .455), Tua Tagovailoa (7-9, .438), Derek Carr (10-13, .435) and Kyler Murray (9-13, .409).

Stat: The Chiefs allowed a sack on just 4.4% of dropbacks last season, the second-lowest percentage among the NFL teams, behind only the Buffalo Bills.

Analysis: Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson was the only defensive lineman to get consistent pressure against New England, totaling six of the Bengals’ pressures. But he didn’t record a sack.

It was just the fifth time in his career that he had at least six pressures without a sack, and the first since Week 9 last year against Buffalo when he was shut out despite eight pressures.

The other three times Hendrickson had six pressures without a sack were in 2022, including the AFC Championship Game loss at Kansas City.

The Chiefs will be starting rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia in front of Hendrickson on Sunday.

He’ll be the fifth rookie to start at left tackle against Hendrickson. In the previous five games against rookies, Hendrickson has 22 pressures, four sacks, five hits, and 14 hurries, per TruMedia.

Bengals vs. Chiefs Predictions

David Bearman (12-4 in Week 1): Chiefs
Adam Beasley (12-4): Chiefs
Brian Blewis (9-7): Chiefs
Tony Catalina (12-4): Chiefs
Anthony DiBona (9-7): Chiefs
Mike Gambardella (13-3): Chiefs
Jay Morrison (12-4): Chiefs
Dakota Randall (12-4): Chiefs
Dallas Robinson (11-5): Chiefs
Ben Rolfe (10-6): Chiefs
Kyle Soppe (11-5): Chiefs
Dan Tomaro (12-4): Chiefs
Mike Wobschall (12-4): Chiefs
Dakota Zientek (12-4): Chiefs