Last year, Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson was the consensus top pick in fantasy football drafts, and deservedly so. This year, with Kirk Cousins gone, Jefferson typically falls to the back half of the first round.
Should fantasy managers draft Jefferson this season?
Justin Jefferson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
You certainly don’t me or anyone else to explain to you why Jefferson is an elite talent. His body of work speaks for itself.
In four seasons, Jefferson has never averaged less than 17.1 fantasy points per game or finished lower than WR9 overall, both of which happened in his rookie year. Since then, he’s been a top-five receiver every year.
If Cousins hadn’t left Minnesota, no one would be questioning Jefferson as an elite WR1. It’s possible CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill might still go ahead of him, but I know I would have Jefferson at overall WR1.
Last season, Jefferson was on pace for another incredible year before a hamstring strain derailed his season. Yet, he still managed to reach 1,000 yards receiving despite playing in just 10 games.
Playing half his games without Cousins, Jefferson still finished fourth in the league with 2.95 yards per route run and was sixth with 10.7 yards per target. The fact that he was able to post games of 26.1 and 36.0 fantasy points in Weeks 16 and 18, respectively, with QB Nick Mullens under center, is all you need to know about Jefferson.
This year, Jefferson will be catching passes from Sam Darnold. While Darnold isn’t great, he should be better than the Vikings non-Cousins QBs from last season. If Jefferson can still average 20 ppg with Mullens, Jaren Hall, and Joshua Dobbs, he can do it with Darnold/McCarthy.
Is Jefferson a Good Fantasy Pick?
A difference of 3-4 spots in ADP beginning around the middle rounds of fantasy drafts is meaningless. A difference of 3-4 spots in ADP in the first round is massive. The Vikings’ QB situation has taken Jefferson from a surefire top-three pick to No. 7 overall.
I’ve had all Summer to think about Jefferson’s situation compared to Lamb, Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, the consensus top five wide receivers in fantasy this year. The more I thought about it, the more it felt like we weren’t factoring in just how talented Jefferson is.
One argument against Jefferson is the cautionary tale provided by Davante Adams last season. Going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr in 2022, Adams saw his efficiency plummet. It got even worse going from Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo/Aidan O’Connell.
Could we see something similar happen to Jefferson? Absolutely. But Jefferson is 25 years old, not 30. If Jefferson is not in his prime yet, it’s still in front of him, not behind him like it was with Adams.
I have Jefferson ranked as my WR5. If he fell to me around No. 7 or No. 8 overall, I would be thrilled to draft him, and you should be, too.