Justin Herbert’s playoff struggles have sparked fierce debate among NFL fans, but analyst Danny Parkins sees the Los Angeles Chargers quarterback following a familiar path to greatness.
Speaking on “Breakfast Ball,” Parkins drew a compelling comparison between Herbert and Peyton Manning, suggesting the sixth-year quarterback stands on the brink of a career-defining breakthrough that could reshape his legacy.
Danny Parkins Sees Peyton Manning Trajectory in Herbert’s Career
“It’s not based on quarterback performance in the playoffs either because he’s 0-2 … but he still is on pace to be Peyton Manning,” Parkins said. The bold statement carries weight when examining the statistical evidence.
Parkins highlighted striking parallels between the two quarterbacks through their first 79 career games. “He is through 79 games, identical records, better completion percentage, similar passing touchdowns, both winless in the postseason.”
The comparison reveals that both quarterbacks posted 41-38 records and comparable touchdown totals while searching for their first playoff victory.
Herbert’s statistical consistency, despite earning just one Pro Bowl selection in five seasons, places him firmly among the league’s better quarterbacks.
According to PFSN’s QB+ rankings, Herbert finished 14th in regular season QB+ (78.5, grade C+) and 11th when including the postseason (75.9, grade C). These metrics demonstrate his reliability even while navigating offensive instability and high-pressure situations.
Playoff Struggles Mirror Manning’s Early Career
The playoffs, however, remain Herbert’s most glaring weakness. His performance in the Chargers’ recent Wild Card loss to Houston exemplified these struggles.
Herbert threw four interceptions, with at least two and arguably three resulting from poor decisions. The quarterback himself acknowledged his responsibility, stating, “Herbert must take the blame for at least two and arguably three.”
The statistical breakdown reveals the depth of his struggles that day. Herbert recorded the lowest EPA per dropback of Wild Card weekend at minus-0.59, including minus-0.82 EPA/DB under pressure and minus-0.33 from a clean pocket. His completion percentage cratered to 43.8%, while his third-down conversion rate languished at just 25%.
Yet Parkins remains optimistic about Herbert’s trajectory, drawing directly from Manning’s career arc. “Peyton started ripping off MVPs in year six and seven and conference championships and ultimately Super Bowls,” he noted. The message is clear: Year 6 represents Herbert’s potential turning point, just as it did for Manning.
Improved Supporting Cast Sets Stage for Success
The infrastructure surrounding Herbert has dramatically improved, offering reasons for optimism.
“Maybe the best tackle duo in the NFL. You’ve got a competent coach. You’ve got a top 10 defense. Need to make me right this season,” Parkins observed. These foundational improvements create an environment where Herbert can finally thrive.
The emergence of receiver Ladd McConkey adds another dimension to the offense. His explosive 86-yard touchdown in the Wild Card game showcased the potential for game-breaking plays, providing Herbert with a reliable deep threat moving forward.
Nevertheless, Herbert’s efficiency metrics reveal room for improvement. His 7.2 net yards per attempt ranked 11th in the league, while his touchdown-to-interception rate of 7.7 placed second. Other efficiency measures fell outside the top 10, suggesting that raw production doesn’t tell the complete story.
For Herbert to fulfill Parkins’ prophecy and follow Manning’s championship path, he must transform his postseason performance. The pieces are in place: elite protection, defensive support, and emerging weapons.
Now, the Chargers quarterback must prove he can convert crucial third downs, protect the football in January, and deliver when the stakes reach their highest. His sixth season looms as the ultimate test of whether Herbert can evolve from a talented regular-season performer into a playoff winner.