Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs followed up the best season of his career (2022) with the worst (2023).
Now in the best offensive situation of his career, should fantasy football managers be targeting Jacobs as a bounce-back candidate?
Josh Jacobs’ Fantasy Forecast
Talent obviously matters in any sport.
Of course, we want talented players on our fantasy teams. But in the NFL, at running back specifically, talent is far less important than situation and opportunity.
Last season, Jacobs was woefully inefficient. He averaged 3.5 yards per carry and just 4.1 yards per touch. A mere 2.1% of his rushes went for 15+ yards. His 2.89 yards created per touch were barely inside the top 50.
Jacobs did face loaded boxes at a very high rate, but his 3.7 yards per carry when he saw light boxes didn’t exactly set the world on fire.
With that said, we know individual efficiency can often be tied to team efficiency. The 2023 Las Vegas Raiders were a very bad offense. As a result, it stands to reason Jacobs’ efficiency should improve on what we expect to be a far superior Packers offense.
We know Jacobs has elite RB1 upside. He averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game two years ago. However, thus far, that sure looks like the outlier among his five NFL seasons.
For the first three years of his career, Jacobs was right on that RB1/2 border, averaging between 14.7 and 15.4 points per game. He had the spike season in 2022, then, in 2023, his production cratered, with his points per game average falling to 13.9.
Early in his career, a problem with Jacobs’ fantasy value was his lack of receiving work. In 2021, that changed, as Jacobs was finally utilized as a receiver. That’s since continued for three straight seasons.
We’ve reached the point where we can reasonably project Jacobs for at least an 11% target share. His lowest of the past three seasons is 11.8%.
On the Packers, Jacobs is going to be their RB1. However, head coach Matt LaFleur has never utilized a true three-down back. And it’s not like he hasn’t had a talented one. Aaron Jones was on the team for the past seven seasons. In his prime, Jones was an explosive runner as well as an elite pass-catcher. He could’ve touched the ball more than 14-15 times per game. Yet, he never really did.
Rookie Mar’Shawn Lloyd may end up with a larger role than we think. AJ Dillon still exists.
Meanwhile, Jacobs only averaged 3.5 yards per carry last season, and then the team that drafted him let him walk. All the while, Zamir White was able to step into the same offensive situation as Jacobs and average 4.3 yards per carry.
Whether Jacobs averages 3.5 yards per carry or 4.5 yards per carry would have a minimal impact on his production. However, whether Jacobs performs well will have an impact on how much he sees the field.
If Jacobs performs poorly and it results in less volume, that’s a problem. So, from that perspective, we want to see Jacobs improve.
There are certainly reasons for optimism. It should be a lot easier running in an offense quarterbacked by Jordan Love than by Jimmy Garoppolo or Aidan O’Connell. And it’s not even possible to quantify the improvement that is head coach Matt LaFleur over Josh McDaniels.
Ultimately, volume is king in fantasy football. Initially, I believed Jacobs would see a lot of it. After further research, I no longer am that confident. At an RB12 ADP, I don’t hate Jacobs. He’s currently my RB14. However, that’s a spot where I’m looking to draft a wide receiver instead.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Insights on Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs was the toast of fantasy football in 2022 when he piled up 2,053 yards of offense, scored 12 times, and delivered one of the highlight performances of the season (303 total yards against the Seattle Seahawks, a masterpiece that included an 86-yard walk-off touchdown in overtime).
In 2023, however, Jacobs burned everyone who invested early draft capital in him in hopes of a repeat campaign. He missed four games and averaged just 3.5 yards per carry (down from 4.9 the year prior).
Jacobs upgraded his scoring environment, though, by joining the Green Bay Packers this offseason, and that has managers ready to again label him as an RB1.
I understand wanting a piece of a Packers offense that everyone is high on this season. However, there are better ways of checking that box than spending an early third-round pick on Jacobs.
Derrick Henry and De’Von Achane are two of the backs being lumped next to Jacobs when it comes to the RB11 title in early drafts. Yet, I would have zero hesitation in clicking either of their names before pulling the trigger on Jacobs.
Achane brings the explosive-play potential to the table with every touch, while Henry — also in a new situation for the first time in his career — profiles as the higher-floor option on a better offense with less role competition.
If your league-mates are like me and scoop both of those RBs before Jacobs, and you’re on the clock staring him in the face, worry not; you have the luxury of waiting. James Cook is going, on average, a round later, while a two-round discount is an option if Joe Mixon is of interest to you. Mixon’s profile is similar to Jacobs’, an RB with limited efficiency who is joining an upward-trending offense that we’re hoping will mask his pitfalls.
I don’t doubt that Jacobs will have his moments, but I see him as coming with more risk than reward in 2024. The 2022 version of him was nice, but paying the current price suggests that you’re hoping we see glimpses of that this season, something that is more optimistic than I’m willing to be.