The Buffalo Bills will face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Josh Allen.
Is Josh Allen Playing in Week 13?
Josh is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Josh Allen in Week 13?
Why is Josh Allen’s interception rate (1.5%) trending toward a career low? His quick pass rate sits at 67%, easily a career-high (2023: 58.4%). I find that to be an interesting approach in this matchup, specifically against a defense that blitzes at the third-lowest rate in the league.
Will Allen hold the ball longer and thus create splash-play opportunities? Will San Francisco sit in coverage and attempt to jump those quick hitters?
The nerd in me will be on full display when watching this game, but from a fantasy lineup setting scope, there’s nothing to act on. Allen has a rushing touchdown or multiple passing touchdowns in six straight contests, finishing as a top-10 signal-caller in five of those games. I don’t think this will be a peak Allen performance, but I find it highly unlikely that you lose your Week 13 matchup because you put your trust in the MVP front-runner.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 13
As of 8 AM ET on Sunday morning, Allen is projected to score 23.3 fantasy points in Week 13. This includes 245.4 passing yards, 1.9 passing touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions. It also includes 6.5 rushing attempts for 35.9 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Ravens' Defense
The 2023 Ravens led the league in scoring defense but only ranked 10th in Defense+. This year's Ravens fell to ninth in scoring defense but fared better in Defense+.
That improved form held true in the Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. While Baltimore's 75.3 (C) grade was nothing special, that's usually all this offense needs to win. The Ravens were able to exploit Russell Wilson's tendency to hold the ball, averaging their second-highest sack rate (11.8%) of the season.
Since moving Kyle Hamilton to safety in Week 11, the Ravens rank first in points per drive, first in EPA per dropback, first in third-down defense, and first in red-zone defense (including playoffs).
Paired with a run defense that has been elite all season, Baltimore suddenly looks like one of the scariest No. 3 seeds in recent memory. With the offense playing at an elite level led by presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson, Baltimore could be better equipped to make the Super Bowl than last year's team, even without the advantage of the top seed.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Josh Allen’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (vs. BAL)
2) Lamar Jackson | BAL (at BUF)
3) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at DET)
4) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. LAR)
5) Jared Goff | DET (vs. WAS)
6) Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. HOU)
7) Matthew Stafford | LAR (at PHI)
8) C.J. Stroud | HOU (at KC)
Ravens at Bills Trends and Insights
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson was the MVP in 2019. The next season ...
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 179 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Advanced to play a 13-win Bills team
Jackson was the MVP in 2023. This season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 175 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Will play a 13-win Bills team
QB: Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts.
Offense: Over their past five games (all wins), Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 40.8% of their drives (they were one of the elite offenses prior to this run with a 33.3% rate).
Defense: Opponents are 0-of-6 on fourth downs against the Ravens over the past four games (prior: 12-of-23).
Fantasy: On Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns when he was 30+ years of age.
Betting: Baltimore has covered six of eight road games after failing to do so in the season opener at Arrowhead.
Buffalo Bills
Team: All four of Buffalo’s losses this season have come following a blowout result the week prior.
QB: Excluding the one-snap Week 18, Josh Allen is 13-of-16 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on third down over his past two games.
Offense: The Bills have not committed a turnover in six of seven games since their Week 12 bye.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to score a TD on all four of their red zone trips in their Week 4 meeting – they’ve allowed two red zone scores on six trips over their past three games (Denver was 0-of-1).
Fantasy: The Bills didn’t lead for a single second of the first game with the Ravens – James Cook’s production over expectation this season is 16.4% higher when playing from ahead as opposed to behind.
Betting: The Bills have rotated covering with not covering in seven straight games (they covered easily against the Broncos on Sunday).
