Carolina Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks is one of the most intriguing fantasy investments this 2024 draft cycle, with his three-down potential paired with his devastating knee injury entering the NFL.
Should fantasy football managers take the risk of selecting Brooks at his current price heading into his rookie season?
Jonathon Brooks’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
There is no way of sugarcoating this. The Panthers’ offensive production under center in the first year with QB Bryce Young, the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick, was rough.
- Scoring: 13.9 points per game (tied for last in the league)
- Total Yards: 265.3 yards per game (last)
- Red Zone Trips: 36 (tied for last)
This makes Chuba Hubbard’s RB27 finish last year a bit encouraging, seeing that he was mostly working behind Miles Sanders for the first month of the season. While Hubbard’s 902 rushing yards, five scores, and 233 receiving yards on 39 receptions were somewhat useful to managers, it’s easy to understand why the organization felt the position could use an upgrade this offseason.
Brooks’ collegiate journey as a member of the Texas Longhorns was a very interesting ride. He played behind both Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson for the first two years of his college career and didn’t even secure the starting job heading into his junior campaign.
Brooks’ contact balance, sudden and efficient footwork, and burst for a back with a solid, compact frame gives managers reason to believe he could be a great fantasy asset in 2024. However, he suffered a torn ACL last November that is casting a cloud of uncertainty on immediate returns, as we now know we will not see him until at least Week 5.
New head coach Dave Canales showed last year he’s willing to stay with a running back who struggles with efficiency if he believes he’s the best option for the team. Canales force-fed Rachaad White 272 carries despite him averaging a putrid 3.64 yards per carry behind an offensive line that had all kinds of issues.
Unfortunately, there is no guarantee Canales will overload a rookie RB rehabbing from a major knee injury with the type of volume necessary to make him a reliable fantasy starter in an offense that could be amongst the worst scoring units in the league.
The fact that reports suggest he likely won’t be available until Week 5 doesn’t exactly scream he is a stable draft day investment at the moment.
Brooks’ exceptional production during his lone year as the leading ball carrier — 1,425 yards and 11 total TDs from scrimmage on 187 carries and 25 receptions — was impressive enough for the Panthers to invest second-round draft capital despite the injury.
Brooks’ current ADP at No. 84 overall (eighth round, RB31) suggests fantasy managers are certainly willing to assume the risks involved with his fantasy outlook approaching his rookie season. For some additional context, Brooks is currently being drafted ahead of Ezekiel Elliott, Tyjae Spears, and Brian Robinson Jr. in the low-end RB2 range.
During Brooks’s lone year as Texas’ starter, glimpses of a three-down player who can be a featured back in the NFL were present. Yet, the uncertainty of this Panthers’ offensive effectiveness while recovering from a major knee injury clouds his immediate upside.
Weighing the risk/reward of selecting Brooks at this price will come down to your personal preference. If you are a believer in his ability and think he can take the definitive leading role early in his rookie year, then this price point is pretty reasonable.
Unfortunately, drafting Brooks at this price is likely to bring him far closer to his ceiling than his floor. If his price remains in the eighth round on draft day, I’m probably going to pass on the talented rookie.