After 21 weeks of NFL football, we have reached Super Bowl 56. For those looking for one last chance at the DFS or prop bet action, we dive into Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow to see his fantasy football outlook as he takes on the Los Angeles Rams. Is there any value for Burrow on the prop bet market, and should he be in your DFS lineups come Sunday?
Joe Burrow’s DFS value vs. Rams
There is cool, and then there is whatever Burrow is made of. He draws comparisons to Broadway Joe Namath and Joe Montana. Nothing ever seems to rattle the guy. If anything, the brighter the spotlight, the less it impacts him. We saw this in the AFC Championship Game.
Burrow completed 23 of 38 passes for 250 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in Cincinnati’s 27-24 overtime win over Kansas City. After a regular season where he led the league in completion percentage (70.4%) while throwing for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns, Burrow has been on fire this postseason.
In the Bengals’ three games, Burrow has completed 68.8% of his passes (75 of 109) for 842 yards with a 4:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In the process, Cincinnati knocked out the Las Vegas Raiders, the No. 1 seeded Tennessee Titans, and the two-time defending AFC Champion Chiefs.
Burrow comes in slightly cheaper than Stafford in DFS
On DraftKings, Burrow is the No. 2 priced QB at $10,600, compared to Matthew Stafford at $10,800. At $200, the difference is somewhat negligible, given we are using Showdown formats. Those require a captain at 1.5x their price with five flex players to fill it out.
As always, it comes down to how you want to construct your lineup. If you’re going Bengals-centric, Burrow is a no-brainer. With that said, Stafford has the higher ceiling, in my opinion. Whereas Burrow has 250 yards or less in two of his three games, Stafford has gone over 330 in two of his last three.
Burrow also has the more difficult matchup. The Rams are No. 5 in overall DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric) and No. 4 vs. the pass compared to the Bengals at 19th and 24th, respectively.
Burrow’s upside in DFS boils down to two questions. One, can Ja’Marr Chase win one-on-one against Jalen Ramsey? Two, can the Bengals’ OL give Burrow enough time in the pocket against Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd? Without question, Burrow can pull it off. Can he win the whole thing? I’m unsure about that right now.
Joe Burrow prop bets this weekend
If you can dream it, there is a prop bet for it in Super Bowl 56. Burrow is no exception. On DraftKings Sportsbook, his passing yardage prop is at 275.5 (-115 over). It’s 276.5 (-110) on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Los Angeles has allowed over 275 passing yards to three of its last six opponents, but given the strengths and weakness of these teams, I am inclined to take the under on Burrow’s yardage prop bet. His 348-yard game against Tennessee is boosting the 280.7 playoff average. While not great odds, the -115 or -110 on the under is worth taking a shot on for the Super Bowl.
My favorite overall prop bet for Burrow would be for his longest completion. While DraftKings has it at 38.5 (-125), FanDuel has it at 39.5 with the over paying at -108. All it takes is Chase to break free one time. Anytime Ramsey is not on Chase, Burrow is going in his direction.
If the Bengals struggle to run the ball (as most teams have against the Rams), Cincinnati will rely on its passing game to get momentum on their side. Who was second in the NFL in 40+ yard completions? Yup, it was Burrow with 15.