Despite finishing 2023 as one of the worst offenses in the NFL, the New York Jets had one of the game’s brightest fantasy weapons in Breece Hall.
With Hall coming off a breakout year and with the Jets expecting to improve with Aaron Rodgers back and healthy, what’s the fantasy football outlook for New York’s running back room?
Breece Hall’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 391.3 (307.9 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1447.0
- Rushing Touchdowns: 10.1
- Receptions: 83.4
- Receiving Yards: 765.3
- Receiving Touchdowns: 4.4
Outside of Hall’s RB2 overall finish in full-PPR formats in 2023, there has only been one other back to finish as a top-two fantasy back playing for a team that ranked 29th or lower in scoring offense since 2007 — and that was Frank Gore with the San Francisco 49ers.
When you realize just how uncommon it is for running backs to become elite fantasy options on horrendous offensive units, one could come to truly appreciate how productive Hall was last year.
The Jets’ offense ranked 31st in total yards at 268.6 per game, Hall accounted for 93.2 of those yards over his 17 games on the field last year after returning from the major knee injury he suffered during his rookie season.
Speaking of that knee injury, this feat becomes even more impressive when you consider he had just 37 total touches and zero touchdowns through the first four games of the 2023 season while the organization was limiting his touch count after returning from injury.
Since New York elected to make Hall the feature back in Week 5, we saw him produce a fantasy floor in PPR formats in a terrible offense by catching an average of four passes per game.
Sure, the rushing efficiency has dropped by over a full yard per carry since his rookie campaign. However, some of these efficiency issues can certainly be tied to a struggling offensive line, poor quarterback play, and his first season back from a significant knee injury.
The Jets addressed their offensive line issues by selecting Olumuyiwa Fashanu at No. 11 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. This move should not only help clear more rushing lanes for Hall but also protect veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers this upcoming season.
New York generated a miserable 37 trips to the red zone last year, which ranked 30th in the league. The Jets’ 32.4% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone was dead last in the NFL. Assuming Rodgers provides even average quarterback play under center this season, we can reasonably expect these numbers to rise significantly in 2024.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Braelon Allen’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 99.8 (84.6 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 501.5
- Rushing Touchdowns: 2.8
- Receptions: 15.2
- Receiving Yards: 152.2
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.4
The fourth-round pick out of Wisconsin very much looks like an NFL back (6’1”, 235 pounds) and was used as such in college (646 touches in three seasons). He’s not Hall, but he does offer explosive play-making and versatility, which means this offense would likely operate in a similar fashion with him leading the charge should he be pressed into starting duties.
That train of thought makes him worthy of a roster spot. The odds aren’t good that he holds standalone value given how slow Aaron Rodgers’ offenses traditionally move and New York’s desire to get Hall the ball as much as possible, but the contingent value is that of a top-20 running back.
If Hall were to suffer a significant injury and Allen was not rostered, we’d be looking at a huge FAAB investment, but if you spend a late pick on him now, you can save yourself that bid and improve your overall win equity in the process.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Israel Abanikanda’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 85.7 (82.9 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 327.7
- Rushing Touchdowns: 0.1
- Receptions: 32.8
- Receiving Yards: 201.3
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1
Abanikanda has shown flashes in his two preseasons and showed fine for himself when given the opportunity as a rookie (nine carries for 43 yards in one game, seven targets in the other).
He showed the ability to handle a full workload in college (239 carries for Pittsburgh in his final season), and that’s nice, but with him ranking third on this depth chart, a volume role is never going to be there for him. In the unfortunate event that Hall was to go down, Abanikanda would be a luxury ad, not a priority one.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
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