The New York Jets will travel to take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. Here’s our early pick and prediction for this matchup, with insights from our PR+ metric, which has guided us to a 16-9 record on plays over the last three weeks.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our Early Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Nov. 3, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 45.5)
This is a fascinating matchup between two teams that have been slightly undervalued for most of the season. The Arizona Cardinals are 5-4, winning two games in blowout fashion and the other three by a combined four points.
The Jets, meanwhile, are 3-6 but have lost four games by one score or less. Both teams are just inside the top 10 of our PR+, making for a fascinating clash between them.
The Jets’ strength has been their defense, which ranks fifth on the season after getting back on track last week. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have leaned on their seventh-ranked offense while facing the hardest schedule to this point.
With a strong offense meeting a strong defense, this game is too close to call. In those types of matchups, I tend to lean toward the defense. However, there’s no clear data here that suggests this should be a play either way. Motivation might be key, and the Jets are in “can’t lose” territory, which could make the difference in the end.
Prediction: Jets 23, Cardinals 20
Pick: Pass
Jets at Cardinals Game Stats and Insights
New York Jets
Team: New York is allowing the second-fewest yards per pass after the completion this season (4.4, league average: 5.3).
QB: The Jets own the highest red zone pass rate in the league this season (59.3%, league average: 34.2%).
Offense: New York is making minor strides in converting third downs. In Weeks 4-5, they picked up just 26.5% of their third downs, a rate that rose to 31.8% in Weeks 6-7 and to 40.9% over the past two weeks.
Defense: A league-high 45.6% of yards gained against the Jets come on the ground (league average: 35.6%).
Fantasy: Garrett Wilson’s aDOT is 35.2% higher when Davante Adams is on the field than when he’s not – something that adds both upside (like what we saw on Thursday night against the Texans) and downside into his fantasy profile.
Betting: The Jets have failed to cover three straight road games (cumulative cover margin in those games: -38) and eight of their past 10.
Arizona Cardinals
Team: Arizona is 5-4 this season after winning just five of their previous 27 games.
QB: Three times over the past month, Kyler Murray failed to rush for 20 yards (prior to this stretch, 49.4 rush yards per game).
Offense: Arizona averages 4.78 runs per game of 10-plus yards, a figure that sits behind only Lamar Jackson’s Ravens through nine weeks.
Defense: The Cardinals have the second-worst third-down defense in the NFL (48.2%, only one-tenth of a point ahead of the Panthers).
Fantasy: James Conner continues to be a good story, but be careful – his fantasy points per touch is pacing to decline for a third straight season (every year of his Arizona career) and this is still ap layer who has missed multiple games in every season entering 2024.
Betting: The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS (28.6%) in their last seven games when their opponent enters on extended rest (the Jets beat the Texans last Thursday night).