It has been a confusing couple of weeks for J.D. McKissic’s fantasy football value. After he was more involved in the Washington Commanders‘ loss last week, what does that now mean going forward? Let’s examine McKissic’s value as a potential Week 3 waiver wire addition.
Is J.D. McKissic a Week 3 waiver wire target?
After two weeks, J.D. McKissic has 6 rushing attempts for 17 yards and 10 receptions on 10 targets for 74 yards. This is largely what we expect from him, in terms of being more of a weapon for fantasy purposes through the air. However, the two weeks have provided somewhat of a contrast.
In Week 1, McKissic had six opportunities and played on 31 snaps (40 percent). Then in Week 2, he had 10 opportunities while playing 34 snaps (46 percent). The difference in the two games was that the Commanders were in a close game that they led for long periods in Week 1, while they were playing catchup throughout Week 2. The second of those two game situations suit McKissic’s usage, especially in the second half.
That will be the issue when it comes to judging McKissic’s value. Will the Commanders be chasing the game in the second half? In the tighter game in Week 1, he had just one target in the second half, compared to four in the more open Week 2 game.
Heading into the game, the Vegas lines somewhat projected this to be the case. The Commanders were three-point favorites in Week 1 while 1.5-point underdogs in Week 2. Heading into Week 3, they are 4.5-point underdogs at home to the Philadelphia Eagles.
While that is not the perfect way to judge McKissic’s potential usage, it does give us an idea. What you need to balance with your waiver wire claims this week is whether adding McKissic, knowing there might be weeks where the potential game script dictates you sit him is something you can afford to do.
The good news is that the Commanders should rarely be big favorites this season. It is more likely they will be chasing games than protecting leads.
Could the return of Brian Robinson change things?
Entering the season, it looked like the Commanders’ backfield was in for a shakeup. Brian Robinson appeared to have stolen the starting job from Antonio Gibson. However, he was involved in a carjacking incident where he was shot twice, putting him out for the early part of the season.
From reports out of Washington and what we have seen on social media, Robinson is making speedy progress. He is out until at least Week 5 but could be eligible to return at any point after that.
That presents uncertainty around McKissic’s role moving forward. We could see Gibson shift into more of a pass-catching role, limiting McKissic’s value. That is another element to this that restricts the price you should be willing to pay for McKissic on waivers this week.
Is McKissic a Week 3 waiver wire add in all formats?
Despite the uncertainty, McKissic is certainly an intriguing option if you play in PPR leagues. Even last week, when he had just six opportunities, he posted 7.8 fantasy points. While that is not a number you want from a starter, it is a solid return if that is his floor. This past week is what you might consider an above-average week for McKissic, and he finished as the RB13.
Therefore, in PPR, McKissic is certainly someone you should consider targeting on waiver this week if you need RB help. His receiving upside makes him a weekly flex consideration and a strong start if it looks like the Commanders will be trailing in the second half of games. He is my top RB priority on the Week 3 waiver wire, and offering around 10-15 percent of your FAAB for him is a solid move to consider in PPR leagues.
In half-PPR, it is harder to judge. McKissic was the RB45 in Week 1 and the RB19 in Week 2. His “average” in that format is closer to the low-end RB3 range than it is in PPR. Given the weakness of the waiver wire options at RB this week, McKissic is still my top RB priority for half-PPR leagues. However, limiting your FAAB offering to around 10 percent would be a prudent consideration.
In non-PPR, McKissic is a player that should slide down the waiver wire priorities. He finished with just 6.3 fantasy points in Week 2 and ranked tied for 30th, in what we consider an above-average week for him usage-wise.
He sits behind Raheem Mostert as a speculative add, while Eno Benjamin and Jordan Mason have clearer paths to non-PPR relevance. If you are looking for a high upside injury stash, then McKissic is also behind Darrel Williams in my priority. If you are really desperate for an RB in non-PPR, then just a 1-2 percent FAAB bid is all you should invest in McKissic.
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