Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle has cleared 1,000 yards in all three of his seasons since being selected as the sixth player in the 2021 NFL Draft, though none of those campaigns have seen him assume the same role.
This will be his third year playing alongside Tyreek Hill, and it has a chance to be his best to date. However, there is a low weekly fantasy football floor to consider in an offense capable of putting points on the board in various ways.
Jaylen Waddle’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
In the same way after you go grocery shopping and have everything in the refrigerator to create a meal of your choosing, Waddle has everything at his disposal.
As a rookie, he was used as an underneath option, racking up 104 catches (6.5 per game), but only averaged 9.8 yards per catch. In 2022, his first season playing alongside Hill, Waddle’s field-stretching talents were maximized, as he averaged 18.1 yards per grab but saw his catch rate decline to 4.4 per game.
🎥 Jaylen Waddle in his first 3 years as a Miami Dolphin:
âž– 3,385 career receiving yards
âž– 20 total career touchdowns
âž– Broke rookie record for receptions (2021)
âž– 9th WR in NFL history to start career with 3 consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons
âž– 5th WR in NFL history… https://t.co/Gn5vs5Mzp4 pic.twitter.com/KKNTZLWm6x— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) May 30, 2024
We weren’t sure what to expect last season, and Waddle essentially split the difference by picking up 14.1 yards per chance on his 5.1 snags per game. While there is some give-and-take with each of these outcomes, there’s no denying which version of him was most valuable to fantasy managers:
- 2021: 1.73 PPR points per target (6.5 catches)
- 2022: 2.19 PPR points per target (4.4 catches)
- 2023: 1.90 PPR points per target (5.1 catches)
Hill made sure there was no confusion that Waddle is the future of the position for Miami when rumors circulated this winter about the team potentially trading him. While that may sound good, Waddle’s per-target production has actually worked backward — his points per target and looks per game have had an inverse correlation through three seasons.
Talks of Waddle being a featured option in the future are nice, but they’re unlikely to bear any fruit in 2024. With last season on the line, the Alabama product only managed a 13.2% target share against the Chiefs, fourth on the team.
My concern for Waddle, at this point, isn’t talent as much as it is usage. If he can’t win routes at an elite level, his ceiling is going to be capped, as Hill out-earned him at a 3-to-1 rate in the red zone a season ago.
That said, there’s obviously plenty of reasons to be buying stock in the 25-year-old Waddle. His versatility makes him a scheme fit against any defense, and his big-play potential isn’t fully appreciated by most because of the gifts that Hill flashes on a seemingly weekly basis.
Percentage of catches gaining 10+ yards in 2023
- Waddle: 68.1%
- Hill: 53.8%
In drafts, Waddle is going right where you’d expect him to, which is alongside the other explosive receivers who are currently the secondary option in their own offense. The likes of Stefon Diggs (Houston), Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams), and DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia) all join Waddle in that mid-to-late third-round range that builds in some risk but also accounts for a stat line that, at the end of the year, is likely to be valuable.
Of that bunch, Waddle is my favorite. In my opinion, he best combines upward trending talent with a stable and known role.
Diggs’ best football is likely behind him, and he’s joining a new system that already has a pair of strong receivers. I’m higher on Kupp than the industry, but even I have to admit that there are concerns in his profile, headlined by risk potential for both he and Matthew Stafford as they navigate Father Time.
Smith’s profile is the closest to Waddle’s, but I have more concerns about the touchdown equity that can be taken off of his plate via the run game (Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley) than I do with Waddle.
An explosive season for Waddle isn’t likely in 2024, but I’m looking for a bit more consistency. If that comes through, he’s a WR2 in all formats that can be started regardless of matchup.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis for Jaylen Waddle
My projection for Waddle placed him at WR14, but very little separates him from my projected WR10. Of the top 18 wide receivers in my projections, Waddle is the only one who is his NFL team’s WR2. That’s for good reason: He’s a proven talent on an explosive offense that funnels over 50% of its targets to two players.
As for my ranks, Waddle is my WR12, slightly above where I have him projected. A big part of why I am very bullish on Waddle is that I believe he would be going 2-3 spots higher than he is now had he been a little bit healthier and more fortunate last season.
I have Waddle projected for 95 catches for 1,327 yards and seven touchdowns, which comes out to 15.93 ppg. That’s nearly identical to the PFN consensus projections.
Waddle is more than capable of producing high-WR2 and even low-WR1 numbers alongside Hill. While Hill has shown exactly zero signs of slowing down, he did get hurt toward the end of last season, and he’s now over 30 years old. What if Hill misses time again this season? Waddle wouldn’t become Hill — no one is Tyreek Hill — but he would definitely see an increase in volume.
Waddle’s realistic range of outcomes is in the WR10-18 range. If Hill didn’t exist, Waddle would have a top-five upside. So, we have a player very unlikely to fail with the potential to really smash if certain things break right. That’s a guy I want to target in fantasy drafts.