The Green Bay Packers have a fascinating WR corps. None of their top five wide receivers are bad. Yet, none of them truly stand out. This creates a difficult situation to navigate in fantasy football. How should fantasy managers approach Jayden Reed in 2024 drafts?
Should You Select Jayden Reed at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 79th Overall (WR35)
- Late-Season Improvement: Despite a slow start, Reed showed flashes of his talent later in the season. However, the Packers never fully committed to Reed as their WR1, and his early-season role was inconsistent, leading many fantasy managers to drop him early on.
- Efficient But Limited Usage: Reed operated primarily out of the slot, where he was targeted on 24.4% of his routes run, ranking 26th in the league. Despite a modest 17.6% target share, Reed averaged an impressive 2.31 fantasy points per target and 0.56 fantasy points per route run.
- Inconsistent Opportunities: Reed’s usage was frustratingly inconsistent, with some games featuring heavy involvement and others where he was barely utilized. The Packers’ deep WR corps contributes to this volatility, making Reed a high-risk, high-reward option.
- ADP Analysis: At his current ADP of WR35 (No. 79 overall), Reed offers weekly upside but also carries significant risk due to the Packers’ unpredictable deployment of their wide receivers.
- Final Verdict: While Reed has the talent to outperform his ADP, the uncertainty surrounding his role makes him a volatile option. I have Reed ranked as my WR39, and while he may finish higher, there are other receivers with greater upside that I prefer targeting.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Jayden Reed
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Reed is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
30) Christian Kirk, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
31) Keenan Allen, WR | Chicago Bears
32) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
33) George Pickens, WR | Pittsburgh Steelers
34) Ladd McConkey, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
35) Jayden Reed, WR | Green Bay Packers
36) Chris Godwin, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
37) Diontae Johnson, WR | Carolina Panthers
38) Brian Thomas Jr., WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
39) Hollywood Brown, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
40) DeAndre Hopkins, WR | Tennessee Titans
Jayden Reed’s Fantasy Profile For the 2024 Fantasy Season
Last year, my No. 1 “throw him on the end of my bench” target was Reed. I drafted him in every league.
You know what I did around a third of the way through the season? I dropped him. Pain.
Unfortunately, Reed took a while to get going. His early season role was very erratic, and he was not producing at a fantasy-relevant level. While that certainly improved later in the season, the Packers never truly committed to Reed as their WR1, even though he’s clearly the most talented receiver on the team.
There were games last season where the Packers went out of their way to scheme the ball to their dynamic rookie. Then, there were games like the NFL playoffs, where Reed played 46% and 61% of the snaps and saw seven total targets in two games.
There’s no denying Reed’s talent. He was efficient with his limited touches last season. The Packers even utilized Reed as a rusher, giving the ball 11 times on the ground, which he turned into 119 yards and two touchdowns.
Reed operated primarily out of the slot as a receiver, which is where he does his best work. He spent 67% of his time there.
The bad news is he only commanded a 17.6% target share. The good news is he was targeted on 24.4% of his routes run, 26th in the league.
Reed didn’t run nearly as many routes as we’d like, but the Packers threw to him when he did.
This was frustrating for fantasy managers because of the belief that Reed could be even better with more opportunities. The young wideout averaged 2.31 fantasy points per target, fifth in the league, and averaged 0.56 fantasy points per route run, eighth in the league.
Of course, those numbers would drop with increased volume. But the fact that Reed was so efficient establishes that he’s really good at football and suggests he could outperform efficiency expectations with more work.
Is Reed a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
I really want to be in on Reed this season. I love the player. Unfortunately, I don’t see much changing with how the Packers handle their wide receivers.
Some weeks, we will get a heavy dose of Reed. In other weeks, it will be Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, or even Bo Melton. The Packers have a bunch of young receivers and deploy them all.
Reed averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game last season. At his WR35, No. 79 overall ADP, he will probably end up being worth that slot. The question is whether you can stomach the volatility.
Reed had five games of at least 19 fantasy points last season and another two more with 15+. The weekly upside is there. Just know there will be weeks where he is frustratingly not targeted and a drain on your lineup.
Sadly, as much as I like him, I have Reed ranked as my WR39. He will probably finish higher than that, but there are receivers I believe have greater upside than Reed. It looks like I won’t be rostering much Reed this season.