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    ‘Feels Like He’s a 45-Year-Old Vet’ — Why Jayden Daniels’ MVP-Level Season Has Commanders Near Top of Playoff Picture

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    Another week, another impressive showing for Jayden Daniels. Given his success and Washington's turnaround, could the Commanders' rookie QB earn NFL MVP votes?

    Another week, another impressive showing for Jayden Daniels.

    The No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has led the Washington Commanders to a 7-2 start and seems like a lock for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Now, given his terrific play and Washington’s remarkable turnaround, Daniels is even starting to get some Most Valuable Player buzz — much like Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud last year.

    Let’s look at Daniels’ incredible season, the Commanders’ turnaround, and where Washington goes from here.

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    Jayden Daniels Leading Washington’s Incredible Turnaround

    Through nine games, Daniels has passed for 1,945 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions on a 71.5% completion percentage (second-best in the NFL). He has also rushed for 459 yards and four scores.

    Watching Daniels play, you’d never know he is a rookie. The 23-year-old is so poised and carries himself like a veteran. Despite being the fourth-youngest starting quarterback in the NFL, he always seems to make the right play.

    In Week 9, Daniels was 15-of-22 (68.2%) for 209 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions while also rushing for 35 yards. According to PFN’s QB+ metric, Daniels had the third-best performance of any quarterback in Week 9 entering Sunday Night Football. He finished with a B+ grade, trailing only Lamar Jackson (A+) and Jalen Hurts (A-).

    Also, the Commanders had the fourth-best offensive performance in Week 9 entering SNF, according to PFN’s Offense+ metric, putting up 27 points on the New York Giants.

    On DraftKings Sportsbook, Daniels currently has the fifth-best MVP odds (+1200) behind only Jackson (+250), Josh Allen (+300), Patrick Mahomes (+600), and Jared Goff (+600).

    Last season, Stroud won the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Award and then finished ninth in NFL MVP voting. Can Daniels finish even higher than the Texans quarterback?

    While watching the 7-2 Commanders, it’s easy to forget just how bad this team was last season.

    In 2023, Washington finished 4-13. They had the NFL’s worst defense, allowing by far the most points per game (30.5) and yards per game (388.9). Offensively, they averaged the eighth-fewest points (19.4) and ninth-fewest yards (312.8). The Commanders ranked dead last in net EPA (-0.21).

    This year, Washington’s offense ranks in the top three in points per game (29.5) and yards per game (396.3), and their defense is allowing the 11th-fewest points per game (20.9) and 13th-fewest yards per game (326.5). Now, Washington has the third-best net EPA (0.23) in the league.

    Thanks in large part to Daniels, the Commanders are on pace for their first winning season since 2016 and their first double-digit win total since 2012.

    Is Dan Quinn the NFL’s Coach of the Year?

    While Daniels deserves a ton of credit for the Commanders’ turnaround, head coach Dan Quinn has also played a huge role in the team’s success and improved culture.

    Quinn is currently the heavy favorite to win the NFL’s Coach of the Year Award.

    Even before Washington’s Week 9 victory over the Giants, Quinn had the best odds (+220) to win the Coach of the Year Award on DraftKings Sportsbook.

    At this point, Quinn’s biggest competition is Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell (+500), Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton (+550), and Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh (+600).

    After leading the Dallas Cowboys’ dominant defense from 2021-2023 and winning the NFL’s Assistant Coach of the Year Award in 2021, Quinn was hired as the Commanders’ head coach on Feb. 3, 2024. Washington’s defense was dreadful last season, but Quinn has turned them into a solid unit in a very short period of time.

    This is Quinn’s second head-coaching gig, as he was also the Atlanta Falcons’ head coach from 2015 to 2020. Before that, he had stints with several NFL and collegiate teams, including helping the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 48 as the team’s defensive coordinator.

    What Are the Commanders’ Playoff Chances?

    After Washington’s Week 9 win over New York, the Commanders now have a 92.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to PFN’s Playoff Predictor.

    Also, Washington currently has a 77.8% chance of winning the NFC East. At 7-2, the Commanders are ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles (6-2), Cowboys (3-5), and Giants (2-7).

    MORE: Simulate the Rest of the NFL Season Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor

    As of now, the Commanders have 3.78% odds to win the Super Bowl.

    For comparison, before the start of the season, Washington had an over/under of 6.5 wins, which they have already topped.

    During the preseason, the Commanders had playoff odds of 27%, and their odds of winning the Super Bowl were just 0.7%.

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