A weekly dilemma fantasy football managers face is whether to start the low-floor known commodity or the high-ceiling unknown. Javonte Williams vs. Trey Sermon is one such dilemma this week, with the latter potentially starting for the Indianapolis Colts with Jonathan Taylor not practicing due to a high ankle sprain. But who is the more reliable option for Week 5?
Should You Start Javonte Williams or Trey Sermon in Week 5?
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s consensus rankings have Williams as the superior option. His projected 9.6 PPR points include 45 rushing yards and two receptions for 15 yards. Sermon, on the other hand, is projected for 7.7 points, but that still includes a projected 7.4 points for Taylor.
Right now, you should operate under the assumption that Taylor is out. Pro Football Network’s injury report shows that Taylor has missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of Friday’s practice, NFL insider Ian Rapoport suggested that Taylor would likely miss some time, even though his high ankle sprain has been deemed a “mild” one.
From @GMFB: The #Chiefs place WR Rashee Rice on IR as he awaits more info; #Giants WR Malik Nabers faces an uphill battle this week; #Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (high-ankle) likely misses time. pic.twitter.com/7gPV0rnj8r
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 4, 2024
With that being the case, Sermon could be destined to see a massive share of the carries in an enticing matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, making him the superior option to Williams.
Javonte Williams and Trey Sermon Fantasy Outlook This Week
Sermon faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs (21.4), while Williams faces a Las Vegas Raiders defense that has allowed the eighth-most (20.7). So the matchup difference is largely a wash here.
Williams is coming off his best game of the season, rushing 77 times for 4.8 yards per rush in the Denver Broncos’ Week 4 win over the New York Jets.
Over the first three weeks, Williams averaged a paltry 2.2 yards per rush. Even with that bounce-back game, he ranks 41st out of 49 qualifying running backs with 3.2 yards per carry this season and has yet to reach the end zone.
It's only been a month, but Javonte Williams has avoided tackles closer to his underwhelming 2023 standard than to his otherworldly 2021 standard in this his 2nd year removed from his ACL tear pic.twitter.com/5cruitS8af
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) October 2, 2024
Thankfully for Williams’ managers, that hasn’t cut into his workload. His backup, Jaleel McLaughlin, is also averaging 3.2 yards per rush, illustrating that the problems lie more with Denver’s blocking than its RB talent (DEN ranks 22nd in yards before contact per rush this season).
As a result, Williams has played between 51% and 63% of the Broncos’ snaps in every game this season. But while he’s a fairly stable option, Sermon represents a home-run swing whom fantasy managers likely prioritized on waivers this week.
Sermon has funnel potential, as the Colts’ third running back (Tyler Goodson) has had one touch all season. Obviously, some of that is due to Taylor serving as the clear lead back, but it’s instructive to remember how Indianapolis handled its backfield when Taylor was out last season.
In the seven games Taylor missed last season, Zack Moss played 66% of the snaps and took 63% of the RB touches. Moss averaged 13.6 fantasy ppg as Indianapolis’ lead back last year, which would have ranked as the RB20 last year over the course of a full season.
Thus, the Colts’ current roster and recent historical usage suggest that Sermon has an RB2 floor this week, with the potential for more given Jacksonville’s state of disarray. That makes him the superior option to any Broncos running back this week.