Fantasy football managers were pretty excited to see what Javonte Williams would look like as the Denver Broncos‘ leading ball carrier for years, and likely came away pretty underwhelmed with his overall production in 2023.
Now a full year removed from a devastating knee injury, can fantasy managers expect Williams to finally break out in 2024?
Should You Select Javonte Williams at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 95th Overall (RB29)
- Inconsistent Production: Williams’ 2023 season was underwhelming, finishing as the RB29 with 1,002 total yards and five touchdowns in 16 games. His efficiency has declined since his rookie year, with his yards per carry (YPC) dropping to a career-low 3.57 in 2023.
- Post-Injury Concerns: Coming off a major knee injury in 2022, Williams struggled to reestablish himself as the Broncos’ lead back. His decline in key metrics, including yards after contact, raises concerns about his ability to return to RB1 form.
- Backfield Competition: Williams faces competition from Samaje Perine and rookie Audric Estimé, both of whom could cut into his workload. Perine, in particular, presents a challenge in the passing game, where he outperformed Williams in receiving yards despite similar catch totals.
- Efficiency Issues: Williams was the least efficient back on the Broncos’ roster in 2023, finishing behind Perine and undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin in YPC. McLaughlin also produced twice as many explosive runs (20+ yards) on far fewer carries.
- Red-Zone Concerns: Despite the Broncos generating the 11th-most red-zone trips in 2023, Williams only scored five touchdowns on 264 touches, indicating potential struggles in capitalizing on scoring opportunities.
- ADP Analysis: Williams is currently being drafted as the RB29 at No. 95 overall, making him a relatively low-risk investment in the eighth round. While he has the potential to provide RB2 value, his efficiency concerns and competition for touches make him a risky pick.
- Final Verdict: Williams offers potential upside at his current ADP, but his declining efficiency and competition in the Broncos’ backfield are red flags. While he could still be a valuable pick in the eighth round, many fantasy managers may prefer to target other options with more stable roles.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Javonte Williams
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Williams is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus RB rankings instead.
27) Jonathon Brooks, RB | Carolina Panthers
28) Brian Robinson Jr., RB | Washington Commanders
29) Tyjae Spears, RB | Tennessee Titans
30) Raheem Mostert, RB | Miami Dolphins
31) Ezekiel Elliott, RB | Dallas Cowboys
32) Javonte Williams, RB | Denver Broncos
33) Devin Singletary, RB | New York Giants
34) Gus Edwards, RB | Los Angeles Chargers
35) Tony Pollard, RB | Tennessee Titans
36) Nick Chubb, RB | Cleveland Browns
37) Austin Ekeler, RB | Washington Commanders
Javonte Williams’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
There’s no denying that Williams flashed an immense amount of fantasy upside while operating in a literal 50/50 split with Melvin Gordon III during his rookie year. Williams’ 1,219 total yards and seven scores on 246 total touches suggested he could enter the RB1 conversation with an expanded role in this offense.
Unfortunately, a torn ACL early in his second season put Williams’ fantasy breakout season on hiatus for nearly a full calendar year. That allowed Williams’ believers the opportunity to select him in fantasy drafts at a significant discount heading into his third NFL season.
Well, here we are a full year later, and after a disappointing RB29 finish with 1,002 total yards and five TDs in 16 games in 2023, most fantasy managers are still trying to figure out if Williams’ RB1 upside will ever be manufactured.
Do these numbers still require a bit of context? Sure, Williams was coming off a major knee injury the season before, and there were more than a handful of questions about how this offense would look in Sean Payton’s first year as the Broncos head coach.
But Williams’ lack of ability to firmly establish himself as Denver’s unquestioned bell-cow back should be concerning to fantasy managers heading into Year 4. He’s flashed some impressive moments during his pro career, but those moments feel like distant memories harkening back to his rookie campaign rather than what we’ve seen in recent years.
Javonte WIlliams has the defense shaking. #BroncosCountry
📺: #LACvsDEN on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/WQXlv74LIB— NFL (@NFL) November 28, 2021
Williams’ yards per carry (YPC) has dropped in three consecutive seasons, hitting a career-low 3.57 over his 217 carries in 2023. When you combine this with some of his middle-of-the-road analytical numbers, it’s hard to project much more than an RB2 ceiling for Williams this upcoming year in an offense that will likely be a work in progress with below-average quarterback play.
In fact, Williams was technically the least efficient ball carrier on the roster in 2023, finishing almost a full yard per carry behind both Samaje Perine (4.5 YPC) and undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin (5.4) last season. Making the case even a bit more concerning is that McLaughlin produced twice as many explosive rushing plays (20+ yards) as Williams on 141 fewer attempts.
Williams’ ability to generate yards after contact looked great during his rookie year, with an average of 2.3 yards after contact per attempt. That number dropped all the way to 1.6 last season.
It doesn’t exactly help matters that Payton invested NFL Draft capital in the bruising back from Notre Dame, Audric Estimé. The former Golden Domer went in the fifth round and could potentially factor into short-yardage situations as soon as this season.
Another factor not working in Williams’ favor is his fantasy floor in the passing game being lowered significantly by Perine’s presence, who caught 50 passes last season. It’s unfortunate because Williams did catch 47 passes last year yet produced 227 fewer receiving yards than Perine on just three fewer receptions.
Ultimately, the first Broncos RB to be selected in fantasy drafts should be Williams in 2024. However, the idea he’ll ever be a feature back in Denver’s offense feels like a fading wish of fantasy managers still holding onto the promise we saw from him in 2021.
Is Williams a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
With an ADP of No. 95 overall and the RB29 off the board that puts him in the eighth-round range, Williams is far from an expensive investment on draft day.
At this price point, Williams certainly projects as a potentially great RB2 return on investment if he manages to retain his leading role in this backfield. However, his efficiency concerns, the usage of other backs in different roles in Payton’s offense, and the organization addressing the RB position in the draft all make me question whether his status as the leading ball carrier is truly secure this season.
Oddly enough, the Broncos’ offense generated the 11th-most trips to the red zone in 2023, which makes Williams’ five TDs over his 264 total touches another potential concern.
I see nothing wrong with selecting Williams at his current price point, but I’ll likely find myself investing in other players around this range due to last season’s lack of efficiency.