Every season, fantasy football managers must decide whether a player is worth adding after a massive outlier game, not knowing what the rest of the season may bring.
That’s exactly the dilemma everyone is facing this week with San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings, who just posted a historic stat line in Week 3.
Against the Los Angeles Rams, Jennings became the fourth player in 49ers history with 175 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns in a game, joining Terrell Owens, Jerry Rice (twice), and Dave Parks.
That will end up being one of the best fantasy days for any player this season, which will have managers rushing to waivers to add Jennings. But looking ahead, how reliable will Jennings be from a fantasy perspective for the rest of the season?
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
Should Jauan Jennings Be Added On the Fantasy Waiver Wire in Week 4?
I mean, it’s pretty difficult to argue that the player who just posted the best fantasy day of the season should still be available.
Jauan Jennings really just had the best fantasy performance by any player so far this season 🤯 pic.twitter.com/HaacPAD4b0
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) September 23, 2024
Of course, the better analysis is not whether Jennings should be rostered but what realistic expectations are for him for the rest of the season.
In a loaded (when healthy) 49ers offense, it’s not totally clear that fantasy managers should blow through their entire FAAB budget for a player who could just as easily return to being the fifth option in the passing game within a month.
To start, it’s worth examining how Jennings’ usage has changed through three weeks this season.
Jennings’ combination of efficiency and downfield volume has been preposterous:
- His 85.7% catch rate is the highest of any wide receiver with 20+ targets.
- Getting looks downfield, Jennings’ 12.3 average depth of target ranks seventh among all players with 20+ targets this season; it is far above his career aDOT average (9.2).
Combine those, and you have an uber-efficient player catching nearly all his passes and a receiver who is getting used downfield more than ever.
That combination is extremely rare. Jennings is in a league of his own so far.
Just look at this chart.
Has Jauan Jennings switched bodies with Brandon Aiyuk? Among players with 20+ targets Jennings ranks:
*T-1st in catch pct (85.7%)
*7th in aDOT (12.3 air yards)In his own area code through 3 games pic.twitter.com/gIJbkrHCQo
— Sterling Xie (@SterlingXie) September 23, 2024
Of course, this is likely unsustainable for the season, so the question is whether Jennings can sustain his volume. On Sunday, he received a career-high 12 targets, the first time he’s cracked double-digit targets in any game of his career.
In addition, he is being targeted on 25.6% of his routes, the second-highest on the team behind Deebo Samuel Sr. and well ahead of $30 million per year man Brandon Aiyuk (19.8%).
Samuel is still expected to miss Week 4 vs. the New England Patriots with a calf strain, and the status of All-Pro tight end George Kittle is unclear as well after he missed Sunday with a hamstring injury.
With Christian McCaffrey also on injured reserve for at least two more games, it’s not unreasonable to think that Jennings could maintain this type of volume in the near term, regardless of whether or not Aiyuk gets going.
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Long term, it seems unfathomable that Jennings would outpace Aiyuk in the offensive pecking order for the entire season.
It was just a year ago that Aiyuk replicated Jennings’ type of efficiency for an entire season. In 2023, Aiyuk ranked second in yards per reception while catching over 70% of his passes, distinguishing himself as one of the most efficient pass catchers in the league.
When the 49ers had a healthy group of pass catchers in Week 1 and Week 2, Jennings was targeted on a much more reasonable 18.8% of his routes, compared to 35.3% in Sunday’s massive game. That type of volume is far more in line with his career average (17.3% target rate), and closer to what fantasy managers should expect the rest of the season from a volume perspective.
Thus the key to Jennings’ long-term fantasy value lies in whether he sustains his deeper targets while also maintaining a relatively high catch rate on those deep passes. That’s a tough ask for even the most elite receivers, meaning that Jennings will likely revert to a bench option down the road if San Francisco can get healthy.
But fantasy managers in a short-term bind can confidently plug and play Jennings with the team’s offensive stars still on the mend. Given the checkered injury histories of Samuel and McCaffrey, in particular, it’s no guarantee that the Niners ever realize their full-strength roster for any prolonged stretch.
If that reality ends up coming to fruition, Jennings could become one of the top waiver wire adds of the season.