The Detroit Lions are small favorites in Lambeau Field tonight, so how should we approach the Jared Goff player props?
Should you back him in a pivotal early-season divisional matchup between two teams fighting for first place in the NFC North? Or is this a good sell-high spot on a short week on the road?
So far this season, Goff has been putting up impressive numbers. His QBR of 70.8 would be the highest of his career in a single season, and he’s completing almost 70% of his passes on 8.0 yards per attempt.
Sitting at 2-1, tied for first place in the NFC North with the Green Bay Packers, Goff and this Lions offense rank eighth in the NFL in yards per game and seventh in passing.
Goff’s connection with Amon-Ra St. Brown remains as strong as ever, and he has developed great chemistry with rookie TE Sam LaPorta as well, whom he connected with on a 45-yard touchdown last week.
But the Lions find themselves in unfamiliar territory as road favorites in Green Bay. According to Ben Fawkes on Twitter, this is the first time in nearly 40 years the Lions are favored in Lambeau. The Lions’ starting quarterback in that game? Randy Wright.
Historically, Goff has been a worse quarterback on the road than at home, so how should we approach his player props for tonight?
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Jared Goff Player Props Week 4
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Passing Yards: 251.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Pass Completions: 19.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
- Pass Attempts: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Goff Betting Trends and Stats
Just six of Goff’s 29 touchdown passes last season came on the road, and his air yards per attempt dropped 1.66 yards in games away from Ford Field in 2022.
Goff Best Bet
Katz: For 31 NFL teams, they start the same quarterback every week (in theory). For the Lions, they have two: Home Goff and Road Goff. These are two entirely different quarterbacks that vastly differ in talent.
Over his last 13 road games, Goff has thrown multiple touchdowns just once. While the Packers haven’t exactly faced the most imposing opposing quarterbacks, they have yet to allow more than a single passing touchdown in a game.
Goff’s Best Bet: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 at DraftKings earlier this week)