Through three weeks, Jameson Williams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have combined to give fantasy football managers three productive weeks. The upside for both is clearly there, but the consistency is not just yet. Which young wide receiver should managers start in Week 4 lineups?
Projecting Jameson Williams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Fantasy Output in Week 4
It wouldn’t be a surprise if, a month from now, we were talking about these two players as every-week WR2s. Right now, though, both have high weekly ceilings and low weekly floors. They are both startable, but neither is a must-start.
The PFN Start/Sit Optimizer has Smith-Njigba projected for 12.1 points against Williams’ 11.5 points. Despite being at the forefront of the anti-Williams movement this offseason, I actually disagree with this. My rankings have Williams a solid seven spots ahead of JSN this week. Despite my lack of belief in Williams entering the year, I like what I’ve seen from him this season more than Smith-Njigba.
Williams opened the season with 24.4 fantasy points and followed it up with 14.4. Last week’s 1.2-point dud should not automatically invalidate what he did over the first two weeks.
Meanwhile, JSN’s 23.7-point Week 2 explosion is sandwiched in between games of 3.9 and 6.9 points. With both WRs seeing inconsistent volume, I’m more inclined to go with the guy who doesn’t need it to produce.
Williams’ Week 4 Fantasy Outlook
Volume is king in fantasy football. We obviously want to start players who are seeing a lot of opportunities. But particularly at the wide receiver position, we don’t necessarily want guys who need volume. The best fantasy WR is one who doesn’t need volume to produce but is more than capable of commanding a lot of it. Through three weeks, we’ve actually seen that with Williams.
Although he did see 20 targets over his first two games, he only caught five passes. Williams has the speed and ability to turn five catches into 100+ yards, which he did in Week 1.
A big part of why I like Williams this week is the potential for a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest. Last year, the Lions fell to the Seahawks in a 37-31 thriller. Here’s to hoping this year’s game is similar.
It is worth noting that the Seahawks have been quite good against wide receivers thus far, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. However, it’s also only been three weeks, and two of their opponents have been the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos.
I am not ready to declare the Seahawks as a pass defense fantasy managers should fear. Williams was one good Jared Goff throw away from having another strong fantasy outing in Week 3.
In the Lions game on Sunday, Jared Goff missed Jameson Williams on a crosser deep downfield. Jamo couldn't get both feet down because the ball was too far out of bounds. Much of that is due to Goff drifting in the pocket. He just needs to set his feet sooner. #OnePride pic.twitter.com/E679azxzdY
— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) September 24, 2024
Williams should bounce back from his awful Week 3 in a big way this week.
Smith-Njigba’s Week 4 Fantasy Outlook
If Smith-Njigba duds again this week, it will be concerning. The Lions have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
This is a game where we should see a lot of passing against the Lions’ pass-funnel defense. We should also see the Seahawks run a fair amount of three-receiver sets.
Through three weeks, playing time hasn’t been much of an issue for JSN. He’s played over 80% of the snaps in every game and has run a route on every Geno Smith drop back. He just hasn’t been targeted particularly often.
Smith-Njigba’s heavy slot usage should inure to his benefit this week. JSN leads the NFL in slot snaps through three games. That will enable him to get a free release and really work into holes in the coverage. I’m expecting Smith to utilize JSN more like he did in Week 2 as opposed to Weeks 1 and 3.
Both Smith-Njigba and Williams are viable starts this week. I like both to reward fantasy managers for trusting them, but I trust Williams a bit more because he is the more explosive player and higher in his team’s target hierarchy.