One of the hottest names entering the 2024 season for fantasy football managers has been Jameson Williams. The speedy wide receiver has yet to find traction in the NFL in the way we’d hoped after his college career at Alabama.
In contrast, Courtland Sutton has been a fantasy asset for the majority of his career, but his upside is in major question in 2024 with Bo Nix as his starting quarterback.
Let’s take a look at who fantasy managers should be starting between Williams and Sutton in Week 1.
Should You Start Jameson Williams or Courtland Sutton This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Sutton is the player to start. His projected 9.3 points include 43.7 receiving yards, 3.3 receptions, and a 30% chance of finding the end zone.
That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projections for Williams (7.8 points).
Williams’ Fantasy Outlook this Week
Opposing WRs facing the Detroit Lions had a high average depth of target last year. However, two defenses had a higher one — one of which happens to be their opponent this week.
The Los Angeles Rams’ opponent threw 9.2 yards downfield on average last season, the highest rate in the league and 19.5% above the NFL average.
Combine that with Williams’ increased snap share down the stretch last season, and we get a viable dart throw that I’d be interested in — if I think my opponent has a better roster than I do. I highly doubt that Williams will ever profile as a “safe” option, and that has me more inclined to play him. I drafted him for his spike weeks, and this could well be one!
I don’t think Williams’ risk profile is any different than the Tennessee Titans’ WR duo or Xavier Worthy in Kansas City, a trio of receivers that I suspect most would start over him without much thought.
Sutton’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
I liked what I saw from Nix this preseason, and if Tim Patrick’s release implies that this team is happy with what it has at receiver, you’d have to think Sean Payton is a big fan of what Sutton can do as the clear WR1.
He assumed the alpha role last season — a responsibility we thought was Jerry Jeudy’s — and ran with it. For the year, Sutton finished 20.9% over expectation in terms of fantasy production, easily the best rate of his career; but even in a breakout season, consistency remains a concern (under 20.5% target rate in all three seasons since tearing his MCL).
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
The Seattle Seahawks allowed a touchdown on 24.6% of opponent drives last season (fourth most), and that puts Sutton in the Flex mix for leagues that start three receivers.
For now, he’s swimming in the pool of my ranks that includes other talented receivers with young quarterbacks (Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, etc.).
I could see him emerging from that pack, but I’ll need to see a consistent connection with Nix before even considering getting him inside my top 30.