Despite being in the conversation for the best wide receiver in the league since the moment he stepped onto an NFL field, Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase has been a bit of a fantasy disappointment over the last two seasons.
Do fantasy football managers still have a reason to believe Chase has legitimate WR1 overall upside heading into 2024?
Should You Draft Ja’Marr Chase in 2024?
Expectations can often make great seasons feel very pedestrian. This feels like the case for Chase’s 2023 production of 100 receptions (career high), 1,216 yards, and seven TDs for a WR11 finish.
When you take into consideration Chase was battling through some injuries and his quarterback Joe Burrow was far from 100% when he was on the field before ultimately missing the final seven games of the year, this season really shouldn’t be viewed as a failure for Chase.
Chase saw a career-high 145 targets with Tee Higgins in and out of the lineup with injury issues of his own, which potentially gives us a glimpse of Chase being in store for a larger target share if his fellow wide receiver ends up being traded ahead of the 2024 season.
While Chase excels as your prototypical alpha X receiver on the outside, he actually spent 25.8% of his time in the slot last year — which was a career-high. This likely helped produce career-high targets last year with more looks near the line of scrimmage, which is evident by the lowest average depth of target in his career (aDOT) at 8.4.
Chase’s yards after contact per reception (5.4) ranked fourth among receivers with 100+ receptions; his expanded role in the slot and usage in the quick passing game helped him finish seventh with 541 yards after the catch at the WR position in 2023.
This slight tweak to his formation alignment could project a nice bump in targets, receptions, and YAC production in 2024, especially with slot specialist Tyler Boyd no longer on the roster. The team added Jermaine Burton in the 2024 NFL Draft, but I don’t see him threatening Chase’s target volume.
Chase has finished inside the top 10 in red-zone targets in the last two years, which makes sense due to his elite contested catch ability. Assuming the Bengals’ offense returns among the elite offensive units in 2024, Chase’s usage near the end zone will certainly help give him elite fantasy upside this year.
The draft day conversation around Chase is certainly an interesting one. He has a current ADP of No. 4 overall, WR3 off the board. The only three players being drafted ahead of him at this moment are Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill — all players who finished as the RB1, WR1, or WR2 last season.
Essentially you are paying a high premium to build the core of your fantasy football roster around a player who has registered just one top-five fantasy finish at his position throughout his three-year career.
Now, context is certainly required with Chase’s disappointing fantasy finishes over the last two years while he and his quarterback dealt with some injuries, he was still just WR6 on a points-per-game basis in 2022 when Burrow played the entire season.
Chase’s situation is great, playing with an MVP-caliber quarterback with whom he has an elite rapport on the field. The target share conversation could be very interesting depending on how Higgins’ situation plays out, but these projections still feel like a leap of faith to make him the No. 4 selection off the board in your fantasy draft.
I’m not denying the overall WR1 upside is there for Chase. He is an immensely talented receiver in a great situation who is in the prime of his career. Yet, I find myself wanting to build the core of my roster with an elite option at RB with the plethora of talent available at WR in the middle rounds.
Chase is undoubtedly worth a first-round pick in fantasy football drafts, but I will likely be going in a different direction at fourth overall come draft day.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insights on Ja’Marr Chase
If there is one knock on Chase’s fantasy profile, though, he’s been a bit more boom/bust than we’d like from an elite WR1.
Guys like Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb rarely completely disappoint. Their ceilings are just as high as Chase’s, but Chase has a lower weekly floor.
Over the past two seasons (28 games total), Chase has obviously been a WR1, but he’s scored below 13 fantasy points 13 times. To be fair, he’s also scored over 28 fantasy points five times, including three games of 32+ points and an absurd 52-pointer in Week 5 of last season. Even if we go back to Chase’s rookie season, the pattern is the same.
This is what keeps Chase ever so slightly below Hill and Lamb for me. It would also keep him behind Jefferson, but Jefferson lost Kirk Cousins. J.J. McCarthy could end up being incredible. But until we see it, I feel more comfortable with the equally elite talent catching passes from Burrow.
Chase is a surefire first-round pick in 2024 fantasy drafts. I do think there is a case to make him the first wide receiver off the board. However, given what we saw from Hill and Lamb last season, Chase checks in as my WR3.